Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
James Cook or Ashton Jeanty?
James Cook was the stronger 2025 producer — 16.8 vs 12.8 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 10.5 vs 13.8). That gap was the draft-day case for James Cook.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start James Cook or Ashton Jeanty?
Coin flip: Ashton Jeanty and James Cook are 0.5 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Ashton Jeanty has the higher floor (8.0 vs 7.5) and BUF is implied for more points (25.8 vs LV's 20.8).
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RB · LV
Ashton Jeanty
15.2 pts projected · range 8.0–24.2
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RB · BUF
James Cook
14.7 pts projected · range 7.5–23.7
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Ashton Jeanty has out-scored James Cook by 1.9 PPR points per game, 18.5 to 16.6 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| James Cook | Metric | Ashton Jeanty |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 16.6 | PPR points per game | 18.5 |
| 17.5 | Carries per game | 19.5 |
| 9% | Target share | 18% |
| 68% | Snap share | 77% |
| 18.9 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 13.7 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: James Cook · Ashton Jeanty
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| James Cook | Metric | Ashton Jeanty |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 (RB7) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 13.8 (RB8) |
| 11 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 15 |
| 16.8 | Fantasy points / game | 12.8 |
| 8.2% | Target share | 14.8% |
| 7.7% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 11.8% |
| 5 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 12 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — James Cook at ADP 10.5, Ashton Jeanty at ADP 13.8. On 2025 production it is 16.8 vs 12.8 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Ashton Jeanty
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
11.8% last 3 vs 14.8% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Ashton Jeanty's target share is fading from the season baseline
Poor move if instead
Ashton Jeanty's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
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Checkpoint · James Cook
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
7.7% last 3 vs 8.2% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: 0.5 points between the last three games and the season is ordinary game-to-game noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.