Head to head
Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews?
Travis Kelce was the stronger 2025 producer — 9.1 vs 6.3 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same draft cost (ADP 112.8 vs 128.4). That gap is the case for Travis Kelce.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Travis Kelce | Metric | Mark Andrews |
|---|---|---|
| 112.8 (TE10) | ADP | 128.4 (TE11) |
| 118 | Overall ADP rank | 130 |
| 9.1 | Fantasy points / game | 6.3 |
| +0.7 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| 20.0% | Target share | — |
| 22.7% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 106 | Sleeper search rank | 96 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
The consensus read
The market separates them by a hair — Travis Kelce at ADP 112.8, Mark Andrews at ADP 128.4. On 2025 production it is 9.1 vs 6.3 half-PPR points per game.
What has to be true
This call flips on beliefs you can check. Each one is tied to the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value.
Strong move if you believe…
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Travis Kelce's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
22.7% last 3 vs 20.0% season (2025)
-
Travis Kelce's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Poor move if instead…
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Travis Kelce's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
22.7% last 3 vs 20.0% season (2025)
-
Travis Kelce's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.