Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews?
Travis Kelce was the stronger 2025 producer — 9.1 vs 6.3 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 112.8 vs 128.4). That gap was the draft-day case for Travis Kelce.
This week's projections are in the Week 6 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 6: start Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews?
Coin flip: Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are 0.2 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Travis Kelce has the higher floor (3.6 vs 3.3) and KC is implied for more points (25.5 vs BAL's 23.0).
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TE · KC
Travis Kelce
8.2 pts projected · range 3.6–15.7
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TE · BAL
Mark Andrews
8.0 pts projected · range 3.3–15.4
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 5, Travis Kelce has out-scored Mark Andrews by 3.4 PPR points per game, 13.2 to 9.7 (4 games each).
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
Mark Andrews · Week 5 injury report Injury report — hand, full practice
| Travis Kelce | Metric | Mark Andrews |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 13.2 | PPR points per game | 9.7 |
| 18% | Target share | 24% |
| 5.5 | Targets per game | 6.0 |
| 80% | Snap share | 63% |
| 14.2 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 10.0 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Travis Kelce · Mark Andrews
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Travis Kelce | Metric | Mark Andrews |
|---|---|---|
| 112.8 (TE10) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 128.4 (TE11) |
| 118 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 130 |
| 9.1 | Fantasy points / game | 6.3 |
| +0.7 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| 20.0% | Target share | — |
| 22.7% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 106 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 96 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Travis Kelce at ADP 112.8, Mark Andrews at ADP 128.4. On 2025 production it is 9.1 vs 6.3 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Travis Kelce
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
22.7% last 3 vs 20.0% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Travis Kelce's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Travis Kelce's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
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Checkpoint · Travis Kelce
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+0.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Travis Kelce's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor move if instead
Travis Kelce's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.