Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Tyler Warren or Tucker Kraft?
Tucker Kraft was the stronger 2025 producer — 12.6 vs 8.9 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 63.2 vs 76.5). That gap was the draft-day case for Tucker Kraft.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Tyler Warren or Tucker Kraft?
Coin flip: Tyler Warren and Tucker Kraft are 0.8 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Tyler Warren has the higher floor (4.8 vs 4.0) and GB is implied for more points (22.3 vs IND's 20.8).
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TE · IND
Tyler Warren
9.5 pts projected · range 4.8–17.0
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TE · GB
Tucker Kraft
8.7 pts projected · range 4.0–16.1
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Tyler Warren has out-scored Tucker Kraft by 3.1 PPR points per game, 12.1 to 9.0 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| Tyler Warren | Metric | Tucker Kraft |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 12.1 | PPR points per game | 9.0 |
| 22% | Target share | 16% |
| 6.8 | Targets per game | 6.0 |
| 90% | Snap share | 83% |
| 12.7 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 8.9 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Tyler Warren · Tucker Kraft
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Tyler Warren | Metric | Tucker Kraft |
|---|---|---|
| 63.2 (TE4) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 76.5 (TE5) |
| 64 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 75 |
| 8.9 | Fantasy points / game | 12.6 |
| 21.5% | Target share | — |
| 22.2% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 57 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 63 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Tyler Warren at ADP 63.2, Tucker Kraft at ADP 76.5. On 2025 production it is 8.9 vs 12.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Tyler Warren
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
22.2% last 3 vs 21.5% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Tyler Warren's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Tyler Warren's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.