Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Zay Flowers or Rashee Rice?
Rashee Rice was the stronger 2025 producer — 15.5 vs 11.8 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 26.2 vs 26.7). That gap was the draft-day case for Rashee Rice.
This week's projections are in the Week 6 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 6: start Zay Flowers or Rashee Rice?
Slight lean: Zay Flowers over Rashee Rice (1.5 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 57% of the time.
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WR · BAL
Zay Flowers
12.9 pts projected · range 6.5–21.8
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WR · KC
Rashee Rice
11.4 pts projected · range 5.0–20.2
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 5, Zay Flowers has out-scored Rashee Rice by 9.7 PPR points per game, 22.4 to 12.7 (3 games each).
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 10 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
Zay Flowers · Week 5 injury report Questionable — foot, limited in practice
| Zay Flowers | Metric | Rashee Rice |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 3 |
| 22.4 | PPR points per game | 12.7 |
| 30% | Target share | 20% |
| 7.3 | Targets per game | 5.7 |
| 45% | Snap share | 80% |
| 22.4 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 12.7 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Zay Flowers · Rashee Rice
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Zay Flowers | Metric | Rashee Rice |
|---|---|---|
| 26.2 (WR13) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 26.7 (WR14) |
| 26 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 28 |
| 11.8 | Fantasy points / game | 15.5 |
| 29.9% | Target share | — |
| 31.8% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 49 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 33 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Zay Flowers at ADP 26.2, Rashee Rice at ADP 26.7. On 2025 production it is 11.8 vs 15.5 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Zay Flowers
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
31.8% last 3 vs 29.9% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Zay Flowers's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Zay Flowers's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.