A.J. Brown: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
A.J. Brown's 12.1 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR8 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
A.J. Brown
WR · New England Patriots
- Week 5 statusInjured reserve
This week · Week 5
vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ET
On injured reserve (NE), so there is no Week 5 projection.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 4.1 half-PPR points a game over 1 game, 4.1 in all.
- PPR rank
- Not ranked: a WR needs 2 or more games to be ranked.
- Games
- 1 game with a stat line through Week 4.
- tgt share
- 3.3% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 5.6 (5.6/g) · Std 2.6 (2.6/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 SEA 4.1, Week 2 did not play, Week 3 did not play, Week 4 did not play. Bye in Week 11.
This week · NE vs LV
Week 5
Week 5 status Injured reserve
On injured reserve (NE), so there is no Week 5 projection.
| Opponent | vs LVNE at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 24.3NE · consensus line |
| Rest of season | WR11 of 100 · 12.8 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 11 · this week not counted: injured reserve |
Trade value 28 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 27 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 5.6
- WR rank
- —
- Needs 2+ games to rank
- Games
- 1
- NE
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Half-PPR | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| PPR | 5.6 | 5.6 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BUF | Did not play | |||||||
| 3 | JAX | Did not play | |||||||
| 2 | PIT | Did not play | |||||||
| 1 | SEA | 5.6 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 13% | 44% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wk 1) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 44% |
| Targets per game | 4.0 |
| Target share | 13% |
| Air-yards share | 9% |
| PPR points per game | 5.6 |
One game so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 16.3 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 16 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 12.1 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +0.1 | nflverse |
| Target share | 28.7% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 28.1% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 20 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
A.J. Brown was drafted as the WR8 — ADP 16.3 — in July 2026. His 12.1 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 16.3
- Overall ADP rank 16
- Sleeper search rank 20
- Fantasy points / game 12.1
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
28.1% last 3 vs 28.7% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
A.J. Brown's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
A.J. Brown's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+0.1 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: within half a point a game of expectation, so his usage explains his scoring and this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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