Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 8.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Jacory Croskey-Merritt outproduced what a RB40 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB · Washington Commanders
- Week 5 injury reportInjury report — groin, limited in practice
This week · Week 5
Projected 8.1 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 0.9 to 17.1.
vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 8.1 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 0.6, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason RB36 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Vegas: WAS implied 23.0 vs 19.9 in his games | +0.6 | 8.1 |
| Matchup: NYG 10th softest vs RB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 8.1 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 8.1 |
| Projection | 8.1 | 8.1 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: WAS is implied for 23.0 points, 12th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: NYG ranks 10th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to RBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast E 12 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 7.1 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 28.2 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB37 of 91 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- car/g
- 14.0 carries per team game this season.
PPR 30.7 (7.7/g) · Std 25.7 (6.4/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 PHI 12.1, Week 2 DAL 5.3, Week 3 SEA 4.8, Week 4 IND 6.0. Bye in Week 7.
This week · WAS vs NYG
Week 5 projection
Week 5 injury report Injury report — groin, limited in practice
- Half‑PPR
- 8.1
- PPR
- 8.7
- Standard
- 7.5
Range 0.9–17.1
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 12.0 car · 42 rush yds · 1.24 rec · 10 rec yds · 0.40 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 41% of WAS's carries × 27.1 a game · 5% of WAS's targets × 28.5 a game
- 12.0 carries · 1.7 targets
- Efficiency
- 75% catch · 5.8 yds/target · 3.6 yds/carry
- 1.2 rec · 52 yds
- Scoring chances
- 2.17 TD per 100 carries, 3.43 per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.40 TD
- Vegas
- WAS implied 23.0 vs 19.9 in his games (×1.16)
- +8% volume, +34% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason RB36 in FFC ADP → 8.1 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- −0.0 half-PPR pts (8.2 → 8.1)
- Context (not in projection)
- NYG allows 1.05× league RB points (rank 10 of 32)
| Opponent | vs NYGWAS at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 23.0WAS · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: E 12 mph |
| NYG vs RB | Allows the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs1.05× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 32% of WAS's carries inside the 206 of 19, through Week 4 · 1 inside the 5 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | RB41 of 58 · 7.6 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 7 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 7.7
- RB rank
- RB37
- of 91 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- WAS
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 25.7 | 6.4 |
| Half-PPR | 28.2 | 7.0 |
| PPR | 30.7 | 7.7 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | IND | 7.0 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 45% | Score this game |
| 3 | SEA | 5.3 | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 57% | Score this game |
| 2 | DAL | 5.8 | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 37% | Score this game |
| 1 | PHI | 12.6 | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −7 | 0 | 49% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Carries per game | 13.3 | 14.0 | −0.7 |
| Targets per game | 2.0 | 1.8 | +0.3 |
| Target share | 6% | 5% | +1 |
| PPR points per game | 6.0 | 7.7 | −1.6 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 118.8 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 124 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.0 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +2.0 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +0.5pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 95 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was drafted as the RB40 — ADP 118.8 — in July 2026. His 8.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the RB starter line.
- ADP 118.8
- Overall ADP rank 124
- Sleeper search rank 95
- Fantasy points / game 8.0
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+2.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+0.5pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 0.5-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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