Jalen Hurts: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 18.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Jalen Hurts outproduced what a QB11 draft slot usually returns — the read leans draft-day value. His snap share fell -8.0pp across the 2025 season.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 98.4 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 104 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 18.8 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +5.6 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | -8.0pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 26 | Sleeper |
Game environment: Implied team total PHI 26.0
The consensus read
The market drafts Jalen Hurts as the QB11 (ADP 98.4). His 18.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- adp 98.4
- adp_rank 104
- search_rank 26
- ppg 18.8
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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Jalen Hurts's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
-
Jalen Hurts's snap dip was game-script, not a demotion
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
-8.0pp (2025)
-
PHI offense's strong game environment holds up
Checkpoint
implied_total, week 1 schedule/lines
PHI 26.0
Poor pick if instead…
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Jalen Hurts's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+5.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
-
Jalen Hurts's snap share is shrinking
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
-8.0pp (2025)
-
the market total overstates the PHI offense this week
Checkpoint
implied_total, week 1 schedule/lines
PHI 26.0
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse · nflverse schedule. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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