Jared Goff: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Jared Goff's 17.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a QB10 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Jared Goff
QB · Detroit Lions
This week · Week 5
Projected 18.6 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 7.8 to 29.8.
at ARI · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Forecast 18.6 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 1.0, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason QB10 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 17.6 | 17.6 |
| Vegas: DET implied 30.0 vs 27.5 in his games | +1.0 | 18.6 |
| Matchup: ARI 4th softest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 18.6 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 18.6 |
| Projection | 18.6 | 18.6 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: DET is implied for 30.0 points, 1st-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: ARI ranks 4th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to QBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: a retractable roof, treated as indoors.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 21.5 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 86.1 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB5 of 40 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- pass yds/g
- 304 passing yards a game this season, over 4 games.
PPR 86.1 (21.5/g) · Std 86.1 (21.5/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 NO 16.4, Week 2 BUF 29.8, Week 3 NYJ 19.4, Week 4 CAR 20.5. Bye in Week 6.
This week · DET at ARI
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 18.6
- PPR
- 18.6
- Standard
- 18.6
Range 7.8–29.8
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 34.5 att · 258 pass yds · 2.03 pass TD · 0.41 INT · 0.08 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 98% of DET's pass attempts × 33.9 a game · 7% of DET's carries × 26.0 a game
- 35.2 attempts · 1.9 carries
- Efficiency
- 7.5 yds/attempt
- 264 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.98 TD per 100 attempts
- 2.15 TD
- Vegas
- DET implied 30.0 vs 27.5 in his games (×1.09)
- +4% volume, +19% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason QB10 in FFC ADP → 17.9 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- −0.4 half-PPR pts (19.0 → 18.6)
- Context (not in projection)
- ARI allows 1.14× league QB points (rank 4 of 32)
| Opponent | at ARIDET on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| Implied total | 30.0DET · consensus line |
| ARI vs QB | Allows the 4th-most fantasy points to QBs1.14× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 4% of DET's carries inside the 201 of 23, through Week 4 |
| Rest of season | QB10 of 39 · 17.7 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 6 |
Trade value 8 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 60 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 21.5
- QB rank
- QB5
- of 40 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- DET
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 86.1 | 21.5 |
| Half-PPR | 86.1 | 21.5 |
| PPR | 86.1 | 21.5 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CAR | 20.5 | 412 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | NYJ | 19.4 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 2 | BUF | 29.8 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 1 | NO | 16.4 | 206 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 100% | 100% | 0 |
| Carries per game | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.1 |
| PPR points per game | 23.2 | 21.5 | +1.7 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 91.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 95 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 17.5 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +5.0 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +1.5pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 66 | Sleeper |
Game environment: Implied team total DET 27.8
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Jared Goff was drafted as the QB10 — ADP 91.9 — in July 2026. His 17.5 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- ADP 91.9
- Overall ADP rank 95
- Sleeper search rank 66
- Fantasy points / game 17.5
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+5.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Jared Goff's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Jared Goff's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+1.5pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 1.5-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
-
Checkpoint
Implied team total, Week 1 lines
DET 27.8 · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
DET offense's strong game environment holds up
Poor pick if instead
the market total overstates the DET offense this week
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse · nflverse schedule. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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