J.K. Dobbins: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Week 9 call · Half-PPR
Flex him. Projected 9.7 half-PPR, the RB27 this week, outdoors in light wind: flex range in a 12-team league. No injury designation yet (the Week 9 report starts Wed, Nov 4).
Start, flex or sitOur one-line weekly call, for a 12-team league: start a top-12 QB, top-24 RB or WR, or top-12 TE this week; flex the next ones who would still fill a flex spot; sit the rest.More in the glossary : a 12-team league's starters and flex spots, from this week's projections.
J.K. Dobbins
RB · Denver Broncos
This week · Week 9
Projected 9.7 half-PPR points in Week 9, with a likely range of 2.5 to 18.7.Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary ProjectionOur estimate of a player’s fantasy points this week, built from his share of his team’s targets, carries and passes, how much his team is expected to score, and his preseason value. It is a middle outcome, not a promise.More in the glossary
at CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary
Forecast 9.7 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 0.4, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 8 games, with his preseason RB30 ADP at 20% weight, at his usual line | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Vegas: DEN implied 23.3 vs 22.2 in his games | +0.4 | 9.1 |
| Matchup: CAR 2nd softest vs RB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 9.1 |
| Availability: RJ Harvey ruled out: his share +21% | +0.6 | 9.7 |
| Projection | 9.7 | 9.7 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary Context: DEN is implied for 23.3 points, 13th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary No effect this week: CAR is the 2nd softest of 32 defenses against RBs (the 1st toughest allows the fewest fantasy points). It is context, not in the projection: with a Vegas line, the model adds nothing for the matchup.
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast SW 5 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 8
- PPG · points per gameFantasy points divided by games played, so a player is not marked down for the weeks he sat out.More in the glossary
- 6.9 half-PPR points a game over 8 games, 55.3 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB47 of 112 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 8 games with a stat line through Week 8.
- CarriesRunning plays where the player takes the handoff or keeps the ball. More carries mean more chances at yards and touchdowns, above all near the goal line.More in the glossary
- 11.8 carries per team game this season.
PPR 59.3 (7.4/g) · Std 51.3 (6.4/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 KC 3.6, Week 2 JAX 3.6, Week 3 LAR 5.8, Week 4 SF 6.2, Week 5 LAC 14.4, Week 6 SEA 12.1, Week 7 ARI 8.3, Week 8 KC 1.3. Bye in Week 10.
This week · DEN at CAR
Week 9 projection
- Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary
- 9.7
- PPR · point per receptionEvery catch is worth 1 point on top of the yards and touchdowns. It lifts pass-catching running backs, slot receivers and tight ends.More in the glossary
- 10.4
- StandardScoring where a catch is worth nothing on its own: only yards and touchdowns count. It favours running backs who score near the goal line over receivers who catch short passes.More in the glossary
- 9.0
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary 2.5–18.7
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 12.7 car · 48 rush yds · 1.38 rec · 9 rec yds · 0.57 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 44% of DEN's carries × 26.4 a game · 5% of DEN's targets × 29.9 a game
- 12.6 carries · 1.7 targets
- Efficiency
- 81% catch · 5.3 yds/target · 3.8 yds/carry
- 1.4 rec · 56 yds
- Scoring chances
- 3.77 TD per 100 carries, 2.76 per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.56 TD
- Vegas
- DEN implied 23.3 vs 22.2 in his games (×1.05)
- +2% volume, +10% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason RB30 in FFC ADP → 10.0 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games
- +0.1 half-PPR pts (9.6 → 9.7)
- Vacated share
- RJ Harvey ruled out
- +21% share
- Context (not in projection)
- CAR allows 1.22× league RB points (2nd softest of 32)
| Opponent | at CARDEN on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary | 23.3DEN · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: SW 5 mph |
| Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary | Allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs1.22× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zoneThe last 20 yards before the end zone. Most touchdowns start there, so targets and carries inside the 20 point to touchdown chances.More in the glossary | 43% of DEN's carries inside the 2013 of 30, through Week 8 · 8 inside the 5 · 3 TD |
| ROS · rest of seasonEverything left on the schedule from this week on. Rest-of-season value is what matters for trades and pickups, where one week is noise.More in the glossary | RB38 of 69 · 8.9 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 8 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 9–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 8, consensus line as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:20 PM ET, no Week 9 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market priorWhere drafters valued a player before the season (his preseason ADP), blended into our projections so a few early games cannot swing his number too far.More in the glossary : preseason ADP · average draft positionWhere a player went on average in fantasy drafts: an ADP of 4.2 means he was usually the fourth player taken. Ours is preseason ADP, frozen once drafts end.More in the glossary from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 7.4
- RB rank
- RB47
- of 112 with 2+ games
- Games
- 8
- DEN
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 51.3 | 6.4 |
| Half-PPR | 55.3 | 6.9 |
| PPR | 59.3 | 7.4 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR ptsHalf · Std | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | KC | 1.3 1.3 · 1.3 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21% | Score this game |
| 7 | ARI | 8.3 8.3 · 8.3 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23% | Score this game |
| 6 | SEA | 13.6 12.1 · 10.6 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 52% | Score this game |
| 5 | LAC | 15.4 14.4 · 13.4 | 18 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 52% | Score this game |
| 4 | SF | 7.2 6.2 · 5.2 | 11 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 32% | Score this game |
| 3 | LAR | 6.3 5.8 · 5.3 | 17 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 49% | Score this game |
| 2 | JAX | 3.6 3.6 · 3.6 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34% | Score this game |
| 1 | KC | 3.6 3.6 · 3.6 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game; the smaller line under it is the same game in Half-PPR, then Standard (half a point, and a point, less per catch). "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 6–8) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 32% | 38% | −6 |
| Carries per game | 10.0 | 11.8 | −1.8 |
| Targets per game | 1.0 | 1.1 | −0.1 |
| Target share | 4% | 4% | 0 |
| PPR points per game | 7.7 | 7.4 | +0.3 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Preseason read (July 2026)The draft-day verdict, 2025 stats, Chalk & Sharp and July ADP, as published.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
At 11.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025, J.K. Dobbins outproduced what a RB32 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026.
This week's projection is in the Week 9 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 87.8 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 89 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 11.0 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.8 | nflverse |
| Target share | 4.6% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 4.7% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 75 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
J.K. Dobbins was drafted as the RB32 — ADP 87.8 — in July 2026. His 11.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the RB starter line.
- ADP 87.8
- Overall ADP rank 89
- Sleeper search rank 75
- Fantasy points / game 11.0
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
4.7% last 3 vs 4.6% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: 0.1 points between the last three games and the season is ordinary game-to-game noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
J.K. Dobbins's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
J.K. Dobbins's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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