Kyler Murray: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Week 9 call · Half-PPR
Sit him. Projected 14.9 half-PPR, the QB22 this week, in a dome: a 12-team league starts 12 QBs. No injury designation yet (the Week 9 report starts Wed, Nov 4).
Start, flex or sitOur one-line weekly call, for a 12-team league: start a top-12 QB, top-24 RB or WR, or top-12 TE this week; flex the next ones who would still fill a flex spot; sit the rest.More in the glossary : a 12-team league's starters and flex spots, from this week's projections.
Kyler Murray
QB · Minnesota Vikings
This week · Week 9
Projected 14.9 half-PPR points in Week 9, with a likely range of 4.0 to 26.1.Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary ProjectionOur estimate of a player’s fantasy points this week, built from his share of his team’s targets, carries and passes, how much his team is expected to score, and his preseason value. It is a middle outcome, not a promise.More in the glossary
vs BUF · Mon 8:15 PM ET
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary
Forecast 14.9 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.2, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 6 games, with his preseason QB17 ADP at 25% weight, at his usual line | 15.1 | 15.1 |
| Vegas: MIN implied 21.8 vs 22.9 in his games | −0.2 | 14.9 |
| Matchup: BUF 15th softest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 14.9 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 14.9 |
| Projection | 14.9 | 14.9 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary Context: MIN is implied for 21.8 points, tied for 18th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary No effect this week: BUF is the 15th softest of 32 defenses against QBs (the 1st toughest allows the fewest fantasy points). It is context, not in the projection: with a Vegas line, the model adds nothing for the matchup.
- Context: played indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Season so far · through Week 8
- PPG · points per gameFantasy points divided by games played, so a player is not marked down for the weeks he sat out.More in the glossary
- 12.3 half-PPR points a game over 6 games, 73.6 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB32 of 44 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 6 games with a stat line through Week 8.
- pass yds/g
- 170 passing yards a game this season, over 6 games.
PPR 73.6 (12.3/g) · Std 73.6 (12.3/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 GB −0.4, Week 2 did not play, Week 3 TB 10.4, Week 4 MIA 11.5, Week 5 NO 18.3, Week 6 bye, Week 7 IND 13.9, Week 8 DET 19.9.
This week · MIN vs BUF
Week 9 projection
- Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary
- 14.9
- PPR · point per receptionEvery catch is worth 1 point on top of the yards and touchdowns. It lifts pass-catching running backs, slot receivers and tight ends.More in the glossary
- 14.9
- StandardScoring where a catch is worth nothing on its own: only yards and touchdowns count. It favours running backs who score near the goal line over receivers who catch short passes.More in the glossary
- 14.9
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary 4.0–26.1
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 30.5 att · 210 pass yds · 1.19 pass TD · 0.60 INT · 4.9 car · 25 rush yds · 0.12 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 92% of MIN's pass attempts × 33.5 a game · 18% of MIN's carries × 27.0 a game
- 29.5 attempts · 4.7 carries
- Efficiency
- 6.9 yds/attempt
- 203 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.39 TD per 100 attempts
- 1.27 TD
- Vegas
- MIN implied 21.8 vs 22.9 in his games (×0.95)
- −3% volume, −10% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason QB17 in FFC ADP → 16.3 PPG, 25% weight at 6 games
- +0.5 half-PPR pts (14.4 → 14.9)
- Context (not in projection)
- BUF allows 1.03× league QB points (15th softest of 32)
| Opponent | vs BUFMIN at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Mon 8:15 PM ET |
| Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary | 21.8MIN · consensus line |
| Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary | Allows the 15th-most fantasy points to QBs1.03× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zoneThe last 20 yards before the end zone. Most touchdowns start there, so targets and carries inside the 20 point to touchdown chances.More in the glossary | 6% of MIN's carries inside the 201 of 18, through Week 8 |
| ROS · rest of seasonEverything left on the schedule from this week on. Rest-of-season value is what matters for trades and pickups, where one week is noise.More in the glossary | QB18 of 35 · 15.7 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 9 games left through Week 17 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 9–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 8, consensus line as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:20 PM ET, no Week 9 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market priorWhere drafters valued a player before the season (his preseason ADP), blended into our projections so a few early games cannot swing his number too far.More in the glossary : preseason ADP · average draft positionWhere a player went on average in fantasy drafts: an ADP of 4.2 means he was usually the fourth player taken. Ours is preseason ADP, frozen once drafts end.More in the glossary from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 12.3
- QB rank
- QB32
- of 44 with 2+ games
- Games
- 6
- MIN
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 73.6 | 12.3 |
| Half-PPR | 73.6 | 12.3 |
| PPR | 73.6 | 12.3 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR ptsHalf · Std | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | DET | 19.9 19.9 · 19.9 | 210 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 7 | IND | 13.9 13.9 · 13.9 | 150 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 6 | — | — | Bye week — no game | |||||||
| 5 | NO | 18.3 18.3 · 18.3 | 229 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 4 | MIA | 11.5 11.5 · 11.5 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | TB | 10.4 10.4 · 10.4 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 2 | CHI | 0.0 | Did not play | |||||||
| 1 | GB | −0.4 −0.4 · −0.4 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 17% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game; the smaller line under it is the same game in Half-PPR, then Standard (half a point, and a point, less per catch). "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; it scores 0.0 and is left out of his per-game averages. The injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 5–8) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 100% | 86% | +14 |
| Carries per game | 6.3 | 4.8 | +1.5 |
| PPR points per game | 17.4 | 12.3 | +5.1 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Preseason read (July 2026)The draft-day verdict, 2025 stats, Chalk & Sharp and July ADP, as published.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
At 15.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Kyler Murray outproduced what a QB21 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026.
This week's projection is in the Week 9 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 150.6 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 158 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 15.6 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.4 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | -0.1pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 92 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Kyler Murray was drafted as the QB21 — ADP 150.6 — in July 2026. His 15.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- ADP 150.6
- Overall ADP rank 158
- Sleeper search rank 92
- Fantasy points / game 15.6
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.4 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Kyler Murray's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Kyler Murray's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
-0.1pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 0.1-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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