Kyler Murray: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 15.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Kyler Murray outproduced what a QB21 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Kyler Murray
QB · Minnesota Vikings
This week · Week 6
On bye in Week 6. Back in Week 7 vs IND, Sun 1:00 PM ET.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 9.9 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 39.8 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB36 of 41 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- pass yds/g
- 166 passing yards a game this season, over 4 games.
PPR 39.8 (9.9/g) · Std 39.8 (9.9/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 GB −0.4, Week 2 did not play, Week 3 TB 10.4, Week 4 MIA 11.5, Week 5 NO 18.3.
This week · MIN on bye
Week 6
On bye in Week 6. Back in Week 7 vs IND, Sun 1:00 PM ET.
| Rest of season | QB26 of 40 · 15.3 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 |
|---|
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 9.9
- QB rank
- QB36
- of 41 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- MIN
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 39.8 | 9.9 |
| Half-PPR | 39.8 | 9.9 |
| PPR | 39.8 | 9.9 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NO | 18.3 | 229 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 0 | — | Score this game |
| 4 | MIA | 11.5 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | TB | 10.4 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 2 | CHI | Did not play | ||||||||
| 1 | GB | −0.4 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 17% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 3–5) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 100% | 72% | +28 |
| Carries per game | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| PPR points per game | 13.4 | 9.9 | +3.4 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game. Snap share leaves out Week 5: no snap count has been published for that game yet.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 150.6 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 158 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 15.6 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.4 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | -0.1pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 92 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Kyler Murray was drafted as the QB21 — ADP 150.6 — in July 2026. His 15.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- ADP 150.6
- Overall ADP rank 158
- Sleeper search rank 92
- Fantasy points / game 15.6
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.4 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Kyler Murray's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Kyler Murray's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
-0.1pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 0.1-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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