Michael Penix Jr.: 2026 Fantasy Football Stats
Michael Penix Jr. has played 7 of ATL's 9 games through Week 10, averaging 13.8 PPR points.
Box-score numbers, plus this week's projection and call where there is one. No draft read.
Not on the Week 10 injury report.
Week 10 call · Half-PPR
Sit him. Projected 13.7 half-PPR, the QB19 this week, under a retractable roof: a 12-team league starts 12 QBs. No designation on the Week 10 injury report (as of Nov 14).
Start, flex or sitOur one-line weekly call, for a 12-team league: start a top-12 QB, top-24 RB or WR, or top-12 TE this week; flex the next ones who would still fill a flex spot; sit the rest.More in the glossary : a 12-team league's starters and flex spots, from this week's projections.
Michael Penix Jr.
QB · Atlanta Falcons
This week · Week 10
Projected 13.7 half-PPR points in Week 10, with a likely range of 2.8 to 24.8.Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary ProjectionOur estimate of a player’s fantasy points this week, built from his share of his team’s targets, carries and passes, how much his team is expected to score, and his preseason value. It is a middle outcome, not a promise.More in the glossary
vs KC · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary
Forecast 13.7 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.6, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 7 games, at his usual line | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Vegas: ATL implied 22.0 vs 23.0 in his games | −0.6 | 13.7 |
| Matchup: KC 3rd toughest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 13.7 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 13.7 |
| Projection | 13.7 | 13.7 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary Context: ATL is implied for 22.0 points, 16th-highest of 26 teams with a line this week.
- Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary No effect this week: KC is the 3rd toughest of 32 defenses against QBs (the 1st toughest allows the fewest fantasy points). It is context, not in the projection: with a Vegas line, the model adds nothing for the matchup.
- Context: a retractable roof, treated as indoors.
Season so far · through Week 10
- PPG · points per gameFantasy points divided by games played, so a player is not marked down for the weeks he sat out.More in the glossary
- 13.8 half-PPR points a game over 7 games, 96.3 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB25 of 47 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 7 games with a stat line through Week 10.
- pass yds/g
- 206 passing yards a game this season, over 7 games.
PPR 96.3 (13.8/g) · Std 96.3 (13.8/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 did not play, Week 2 did not play, Week 3 GB 14.0, Week 4 NO 12.7, Week 5 BAL 14.4, Week 6 CHI 23.1, Week 7 SF 20.4, Week 8 TB −1.9, Week 9 CIN 13.5, Week 10 not played yet. Bye in Week 11.
This week · ATL vs KC
Week 10 projection
- Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary
- 13.7
- PPR · point per receptionEvery catch is worth 1 point on top of the yards and touchdowns. It lifts pass-catching running backs, slot receivers and tight ends.More in the glossary
- 13.7
- StandardScoring where a catch is worth nothing on its own: only yards and touchdowns count. It favours running backs who score near the goal line over receivers who catch short passes.More in the glossary
- 13.7
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary 2.8–24.8
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 30.4 att · 210 pass yds · 1.29 pass TD · 0.81 INT · 2.9 car · 13 rush yds · 0.08 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 97% of ATL's pass attempts × 32.3 a game · 11% of ATL's carries × 26.9 a game
- 30.4 attempts · 2.9 carries
- Efficiency
- 6.9 yds/attempt
- 210 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.56 TD per 100 attempts
- 1.37 TD
- Vegas
- ATL implied 22.0 vs 23.0 in his games (×0.96)
- −2% volume, −9% TD rate
- Market prior
- Not in preseason ADP — no prior
- Context (not in projection)
- KC allows 0.82× league QB points (3rd toughest of 32)
| Opponent | vs KCATL at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary | 22.0ATL · consensus line |
| Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary | Allows the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to QBs0.82× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zoneThe last 20 yards before the end zone. Most touchdowns start there, so targets and carries inside the 20 point to touchdown chances.More in the glossary | 5% of ATL's carries inside the 202 of 39, through Week 10 |
| ROS · rest of seasonEverything left on the schedule from this week on. Rest-of-season value is what matters for trades and pickups, where one week is noise.More in the glossary | QB27 of 33 · 14.3 PPGHalf-PPR points per game · 7 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 11 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 10–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 9, consensus line as of Sat, Nov 14, 6:57 PM ET, Week 10 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 10 · Week 10 in progress — 1 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 13.8
- QB rank
- QB25
- of 47 with 2+ games
- Games
- 7
- ATL
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 96.3 | 13.8 |
| Half-PPR | 96.3 | 13.8 |
| PPR | 96.3 | 13.8 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR ptsHalf · Std | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | KC | — | Not played yet | |||||||
| 9 | CIN | 13.5 13.5 · 13.5 | 162 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 8 | TB | −1.9 −1.9 · −1.9 | 125 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 7 | SF | 20.4 20.4 · 20.4 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 5 | −1 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 6 | CHI | 23.1 23.1 · 23.1 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 5 | BAL | 14.4 14.4 · 14.4 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 95% | Score this game |
| 4 | NO | 12.7 12.7 · 12.7 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −2 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | GB | 14.0 14.0 · 14.0 | 256 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −2 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | Did not play | |||||||
| 1 | PIT | 0.0 | Did not play | |||||||
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game; the smaller line under it is the same game in Half-PPR, then Standard (half a point, and a point, less per catch). "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; it scores 0.0 and is left out of his per-game averages. The injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 7–9) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 100% | 99% | +1 |
| Carries per game | 4.3 | 2.9 | +1.4 |
| PPR points per game | 10.7 | 13.8 | −3.1 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Inside the 20
| Chances | His | Team share |
|---|---|---|
| Carries inside the 20 | 2 | 5% |
| Carries inside the 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Red-zone touchdowns | 0 | — |
Through Week 10, over 9 team games. Team share is his part of every target or carry his team had in that zone; a dash means it had none. Counted from nflverse play-by-play, the same way as the red zone board.
Sources: nflverse player stats, snap counts, play-by-play and the official injury report (CC-BY 4.0). Every figure in the game log, usage and red-zone blocks is a count, or an average of counts, from those files. A projection in the Week card above shows its own inputs and math. Opportunities are his pass attempts, carries and targets, divided by his team's games.
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Next step
Everything for Week 10, on one page.
The top of every weekly board on one page: Vegas implied totals, wind, DST and kicker streamers, waiver risers, injuries, soft matchups and byes.
Open the Week 10 cheat sheet