Puka Nacua: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Puka Nacua averaged 19.4 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a WR1 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Puka Nacua
WR · Los Angeles Rams
This week · Week 6
Projected 16.9 half-PPR points in Week 6, with a likely range of 10.4 to 25.7.Limited data: only 2 2026 games behind this projection, so it leans on his preseason ADP (50% weight). Expect it to move.
vs ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ET
Forecast 16.9 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 1.2, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 2 games, with his preseason WR2 ADP at 50% weight, at his usual line | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| Vegas: LAR implied 32.3 vs 24.1 in his games | +1.2 | 16.9 |
| Matchup: ARI 4th softest vs WR: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 16.9 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 16.9 |
| Projection | 16.9 | 16.9 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: LAR is implied for 32.3 points, 1st-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: ARI ranks 4th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to WRs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: played indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 16.6 half-PPR points a game over 2 games, 33.1 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR7 of 154 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 2 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- tgt share
- 14.3% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 40.1 (20.1/g) · Std 26.1 (13.1/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 SF 9.9, Week 2 did not play, Week 3 did not play, Week 4 PHI 23.2, Week 5 not played yet. Bye in Week 11.
This week · LAR vs ARI
Week 6 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 16.9
- PPR
- 20.1
- Standard
- 13.6
Range 10.4–25.7
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 9.6 tgt · 6.56 rec · 88 yds · 0.65 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 26% of LAR's targets × 30.2 a game
- 9.2 targets
- Efficiency
- 69% catch · 9.1 yds/target
- 6.3 rec · 87 yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.30 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.73 TD
- Vegas
- LAR implied 32.3 vs 24.1 in his games (×1.34)
- +16% volume, +79% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason WR2 in FFC ADP → 17.7 PPG, 50% weight at 2 games
- +0.8 half-PPR pts (16.1 → 16.9)
- Context (not in projection)
- ARI allows 1.12× league WR points (rank 4 of 32)
| Opponent | vs ARILAR at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 4:05 PM ET |
| Implied total | 32.3LAR · consensus line |
| ARI vs WR | Allows the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs1.12× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 7% of LAR's targets inside the 201 of 15, through Week 5 · 1 inside the 10 |
| Rest of season | WR2 of 103 · 16.5 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 11 |
Trade value 58 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 7 of 85 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 8:19 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 20.1
- WR rank
- WR7
- of 154 with 2+ games
- Games
- 2
- LAR
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 26.1 | 13.1 |
| Half-PPR | 33.1 | 16.6 |
| PPR | 40.1 | 20.1 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BUF | Not played yet | |||||||
| 4 | PHI | 27.7 | 12 | 9 | 125 | 0 | 24% | 90% | Score this game |
| 3 | DEN | Did not play | |||||||
| 2 | NYG | Did not play | |||||||
| 1 | SF | 12.4 | 9 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 33% | 70% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wks 1–4) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 80% |
| Targets per game | 10.5 |
| Target share | 29% |
| Air-yards share | 38% |
| PPR points per game | 20.1 |
2 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 2.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 3 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 19.4 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +4.3 | nflverse |
| Target share | 30.1% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 30.3% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 5 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Puka Nacua was drafted as the WR1 — ADP 2.9 — in July 2026. His 19.4 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line.
- ADP 2.9
- Overall ADP rank 3
- Sleeper search rank 5
- Fantasy points / game 19.4
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
30.3% last 3 vs 30.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: 0.2 points between the last three games and the season is ordinary game-to-game noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+4.3 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Puka Nacua's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Puka Nacua's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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