Sam Darnold: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Sam Darnold averaged 13.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a QB20 draft slot is worth, so the price reads roughly in line with the production. His snap share climbed +3.8pp across the 2025 season.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 148.2 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 154 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 13.8 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.0 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +3.8pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 84 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts Sam Darnold as the QB20 (ADP 148.2). His 13.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the QB starter line.
- adp 148.2
- adp_rank 154
- search_rank 84
- ppg 13.8
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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Sam Darnold's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
-
Sam Darnold's snap share keeps climbing
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+3.8pp (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
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Sam Darnold's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
-
Sam Darnold's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+3.8pp (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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