Sam Darnold: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Week 9 call · Half-PPR
Sit him. Projected 16.5 half-PPR, the QB16 this week, outdoors in light wind: a 12-team league starts 12 QBs. No injury designation yet (the Week 9 report starts Wed, Nov 4).
Start, flex or sitOur one-line weekly call, for a 12-team league: start a top-12 QB, top-24 RB or WR, or top-12 TE this week; flex the next ones who would still fill a flex spot; sit the rest.More in the glossary : a 12-team league's starters and flex spots, from this week's projections.
Sam Darnold
QB · Seattle Seahawks
This week · Week 9
Projected 16.5 half-PPR points in Week 9, with a likely range of 5.6 to 27.7.Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary ProjectionOur estimate of a player’s fantasy points this week, built from his share of his team’s targets, carries and passes, how much his team is expected to score, and his preseason value. It is a middle outcome, not a promise.More in the glossary
vs ARI · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary
Forecast 16.5 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 2.0, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 6 games, with his preseason QB16 ADP at 25% weight, at his usual line | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| Vegas: SEA implied 28.3 vs 23.5 in his games | +2.0 | 16.5 |
| Matchup: ARI 2nd softest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 16.5 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 16.5 |
| Projection | 16.5 | 16.5 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary Context: SEA is implied for 28.3 points, 4th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary No effect this week: ARI is the 2nd softest of 32 defenses against QBs (the 1st toughest allows the fewest fantasy points). It is context, not in the projection: with a Vegas line, the model adds nothing for the matchup.
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast SSW 7 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 8
- PPG · points per gameFantasy points divided by games played, so a player is not marked down for the weeks he sat out.More in the glossary
- 12.5 half-PPR points a game over 6 games, 74.8 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB31 of 44 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 6 games with a stat line through Week 8.
- pass yds/g
- 215 passing yards a game this season, over 6 games.
PPR 74.8 (12.5/g) · Std 74.8 (12.5/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 NE 0.5, Week 2 did not play, Week 3 WAS 27.7, Week 4 LAC 13.3, Week 5 SF 8.3, Week 6 DEN 11.0, Week 7 KC 14.0, Week 8 not played yet. Bye in Week 11.
This week · SEA vs ARI
Week 9 projection
- Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary
- 16.5
- PPR · point per receptionEvery catch is worth 1 point on top of the yards and touchdowns. It lifts pass-catching running backs, slot receivers and tight ends.More in the glossary
- 16.5
- StandardScoring where a catch is worth nothing on its own: only yards and touchdowns count. It favours running backs who score near the goal line over receivers who catch short passes.More in the glossary
- 16.5
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary 5.6–27.7
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 31.3 att · 229 pass yds · 1.94 pass TD · 0.97 INT · 2.0 car · 9 rush yds · 0.10 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 93% of SEA's pass attempts × 30.7 a game · 7% of SEA's carries × 27.8 a game
- 31.3 attempts · 2.0 carries
- Efficiency
- 7.3 yds/attempt
- 229 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.43 TD per 100 attempts
- 2.04 TD
- Vegas
- SEA implied 28.3 vs 23.5 in his games (×1.20)
- +10% volume, +45% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason QB16 in FFC ADP → 16.5 PPG, 25% weight at 6 games
- +0.0 half-PPR pts (16.5 → 16.5)
- Context (not in projection)
- ARI allows 1.22× league QB points (2nd softest of 32)
| Opponent | vs ARISEA at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary | 28.3SEA · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: SSW 7 mph |
| Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary | Allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to QBs1.22× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| ROS · rest of seasonEverything left on the schedule from this week on. Rest-of-season value is what matters for trades and pickups, where one week is noise.More in the glossary | QB24 of 35 · 15.2 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 8 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 11 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 9–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 8, consensus line as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:20 PM ET, no Week 9 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market priorWhere drafters valued a player before the season (his preseason ADP), blended into our projections so a few early games cannot swing his number too far.More in the glossary : preseason ADP · average draft positionWhere a player went on average in fantasy drafts: an ADP of 4.2 means he was usually the fourth player taken. Ours is preseason ADP, frozen once drafts end.More in the glossary from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 12.5
- QB rank
- QB31
- of 44 with 2+ games
- Games
- 6
- SEA
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 74.8 | 12.5 |
| Half-PPR | 74.8 | 12.5 |
| PPR | 74.8 | 12.5 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR ptsHalf · Std | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CHI | — | Not played yet | |||||||
| 7 | KC | 14.0 14.0 · 14.0 | 257 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 6 | DEN | 11.0 11.0 · 11.0 | 278 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 5 | SF | 8.3 8.3 · 8.3 | 195 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 4 | LAC | 13.3 13.3 · 13.3 | 168 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | WAS | 27.7 27.7 · 27.7 | 379 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 2 | ARI | 0.0 | Did not play | |||||||
| 1 | NE | 0.5 0.5 · 0.5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game; the smaller line under it is the same game in Half-PPR, then Standard (half a point, and a point, less per catch). "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; it scores 0.0 and is left out of his per-game averages. The injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 5–7) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 100% | 85% | +15 |
| Carries per game | 1.7 | 1.5 | +0.2 |
| PPR points per game | 11.1 | 12.5 | −1.4 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Preseason read (July 2026)The draft-day verdict, 2025 stats, Chalk & Sharp and July ADP, as published.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Sam Darnold averaged 13.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a QB20 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production. His snap share climbed +3.8pp across the 2025 season.
This week's projection is in the Week 9 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 148.2 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 154 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 13.8 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.0 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +3.8pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 84 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Sam Darnold was drafted as the QB20 — ADP 148.2 — in July 2026. His 13.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the QB starter line.
- ADP 148.2
- Overall ADP rank 154
- Sleeper search rank 84
- Fantasy points / game 13.8
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Sam Darnold's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Sam Darnold's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+3.8pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Sam Darnold's snap share keeps climbing
Poor pick if instead
Sam Darnold's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
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