Head to head
Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford?
Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford are a near-tie on 2025 production (19.7 vs 20.6 half-PPR PPG). At matching ADP, the pick comes down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Brock Purdy | Metric | Matthew Stafford |
|---|---|---|
| 101.1 (QB12) | ADP | 105.5 (QB13) |
| 105 | Overall ADP rank | 109 |
| 19.7 | Fantasy points / game | 20.6 |
| +6.8 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| 37 | Sleeper search rank | 103 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
The consensus read
The market separates them by a hair — Brock Purdy at ADP 101.1, Matthew Stafford at ADP 105.5. On 2025 production it is 19.7 vs 20.6 half-PPR points per game.
What has to be true
This call flips on beliefs you can check. Each one is tied to the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value.
Strong move if you believe…
-
Brock Purdy's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+6.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Poor move if instead…
-
Brock Purdy's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint: fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+6.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.