Brock Purdy: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 19.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Brock Purdy outproduced what a QB12 draft slot usually returns — the read leans draft-day value.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 101.1 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 105 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 19.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +6.8 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +0.6pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 37 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts Brock Purdy as the QB12 (ADP 101.1). His 19.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- adp 101.1
- adp_rank 105
- search_rank 37
- ppg 19.7
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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Brock Purdy's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+6.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
-
Brock Purdy's snap share keeps climbing
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+0.6pp (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
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Brock Purdy's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+6.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
-
Brock Purdy's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+0.6pp (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Ask Chalk & Sharp about Brock Purdy for your exact draft.
This page is a league-average read. The AI assistant weighs Brock Purdy against your scoring, your roster build, and who is still on the board when your pick comes up.
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