Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Bucky Irving or David Montgomery?
Bucky Irving was the stronger 2025 producer — 12.3 vs 9.1 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 48.2 vs 53.8). That gap was the draft-day case for Bucky Irving.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Bucky Irving or David Montgomery?
Slight lean: Bucky Irving over David Montgomery (1.4 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 57% of the time.
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RB · TB
Bucky Irving
10.6 pts projected · range 3.4–19.6
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RB · HOU
David Montgomery
9.2 pts projected · range 2.0–18.2
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Bucky Irving has out-scored David Montgomery by 0.7 PPR points per game, 11.8 to 11.1 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of
Bucky Irving · Week 4 injury report Injury report — glute, full practice
| Bucky Irving | Metric | David Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 11.8 | PPR points per game | 11.1 |
| 14.0 | Carries per game | 11.8 |
| 12% | Target share | 5% |
| 63% | Snap share | 55% |
| 9.0 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 5.2 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Bucky Irving · David Montgomery
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Bucky Irving | Metric | David Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| 48.2 (RB22) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 53.8 (RB23) |
| 51 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 54 |
| 12.3 | Fantasy points / game | 9.1 |
| 10.7% | Target share | — |
| 7.6% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 22 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 48 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Bucky Irving at ADP 48.2, David Montgomery at ADP 53.8. On 2025 production it is 12.3 vs 9.1 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Bucky Irving
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
7.6% last 3 vs 10.7% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Bucky Irving's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Bucky Irving's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.