David Montgomery: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
David Montgomery's 9.1 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a RB23 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
David Montgomery
RB · Houston Texans
This week · Week 5
at TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Week 5 game underway or final: a projection closes at kickoff.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 10.2 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 40.9 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB26 of 92 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- car/g
- 11.8 carries per team game this season.
PPR 44.4 (11.1/g) · Std 37.4 (9.4/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 BUF 27.4, Week 2 CIN 3.4, Week 3 IND 5.8, Week 4 DAL 4.3, Week 5 not played yet. Bye in Week 8.
This week · HOU at TEN
Week 5
Week 5 game underway or final: a projection closes at kickoff. See the game log
| Opponent | at TENHOU on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Rest of season | RB28 of 58 · 10.0 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 8 |
Trade value 5 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 67 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 1 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 11.1
- RB rank
- RB26
- of 92 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- HOU
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 37.4 | 9.3 |
| Half-PPR | 40.9 | 10.2 |
| PPR | 44.4 | 11.1 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | TEN | Not played yet | |||||||||
| 4 | DAL | 4.3 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 56% | Score this game |
| 3 | IND | 6.8 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 63% | Score this game |
| 2 | CIN | 4.4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 52% | Score this game |
| 1 | BUF | 28.9 | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 49% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Carries per game | 9.0 | 11.8 | −2.8 |
| Targets per game | 1.3 | 1.8 | −0.4 |
| Target share | 4% | 5% | −1 |
| PPR points per game | 5.2 | 11.1 | −5.9 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 53.8 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 54 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 9.1 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +2.4 | nflverse |
| Target share | 5.4% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 3.2% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 48 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
David Montgomery was drafted as the RB23 — ADP 53.8 — in July 2026. His 9.1 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the RB starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 53.8
- Overall ADP rank 54
- Sleeper search rank 48
- Fantasy points / game 9.1
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
3.2% last 3 vs 5.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
David Montgomery's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
David Montgomery's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+2.4 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
David Montgomery's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
David Montgomery's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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