David Montgomery: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
David Montgomery's 9.1 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a RB23 draft price usually buys — you are paying for projection, not last season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 53.8 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 54 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 9.1 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +2.4 | nflverse |
| Target share | 5.4% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 3.2% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 48 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts David Montgomery as the RB23 (ADP 53.8). His 9.1 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the RB starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- adp 53.8
- adp_rank 54
- search_rank 48
- ppg 9.1
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
-
David Montgomery's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
3.2% last 3 vs 5.4% season (2025)
-
David Montgomery's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+2.4 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
-
David Montgomery's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
3.2% last 3 vs 5.4% season (2025)
-
David Montgomery's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+2.4 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Ask Chalk & Sharp about David Montgomery for your exact draft.
This page is a league-average read. The AI assistant weighs David Montgomery against your scoring, your roster build, and who is still on the board when your pick comes up.
See a Chalk & Sharp read