Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Caleb Williams or Bo Nix?
Caleb Williams and Bo Nix are a near-tie on 2025 production (18.7 vs 17.9 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Caleb Williams or Bo Nix?
Bo Nix is the safer start: Caleb Williams missed Weeks 3–4 (hamstring) and his Week 5 status isn't known yet.
If Caleb Williams is cleared, his projection is 16.9 vs Bo Nix's 16.1.
-
QB · CHI · Status unknown
Caleb Williams
16.9 pts projected if he plays · range 6.0–28.1
Missed Weeks 3–4 (hamstring) — no Week 5 game status yet (Week 5 practice report: did not practice)
-
QB · DEN
Bo Nix
16.1 pts projected · range 5.2–27.3
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Caleb Williams has out-scored Bo Nix by 8.2 PPR points per game, 22.5 to 14.3 (Caleb Williams 2 games, Bo Nix 4 games).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
Caleb Williams · Week 5 injury report Injury report — hamstring, did not practice
| Caleb Williams | Metric | Bo Nix |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Games | 4 |
| 22.5 | PPR points per game | 14.3 |
| 203.5 | Pass yards per game | 204.8 |
| 7.5 | Carries per game | 3.5 |
| 93% | Snap share | 100% |
| 22.5 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 17.3 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Caleb Williams · Bo Nix
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Caleb Williams | Metric | Bo Nix |
|---|---|---|
| 109.9 (QB14) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 123.7 (QB15) |
| 114 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 125 |
| 18.7 | Fantasy points / game | 17.9 |
| +4.6 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| +0.9pp | Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | — |
| 15 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 34 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Caleb Williams at ADP 109.9, Bo Nix at ADP 123.7. On 2025 production it is 18.7 vs 17.9 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
-
Checkpoint · Caleb Williams
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Caleb Williams's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor move if instead
Caleb Williams's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint · Caleb Williams
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+0.9pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 0.9-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.