Caleb Williams stats & 2026 fantasy outlook
Through Week 5 of 2026, Caleb Williams has 45.0 PPR points in 2 games: 22.5 per game, QB5 of 41 in PPR points per game.
Caleb Williams
QB · Chicago Bears
- Week 5 injury reportQuestionable — hamstring, limited in practice
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 22.5 half-PPR points a game over 2 games, 45.0 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB5 of 41 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 2 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- pass yds/g
- 204 passing yards a game this season, over 2 games.
PPR 45.0 (22.5/g) · Std 45.0 (22.5/g)
This week · Week 6
Projected 17.4 half-PPR points in Week 6, with a likely range of 6.5 to 28.6.Limited data: only 2 2026 games behind this projection, so it leans on his preseason ADP (50% weight). Expect it to move.
at ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 17.4 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.3, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 2 games, with his preseason QB9 ADP at 50% weight, at his usual line | 17.7 | 17.7 |
| Vegas: CHI implied 24.8 vs 25.4 in his games | −0.3 | 17.4 |
| Matchup: ATL 13th softest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 17.4 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 17.4 |
| Projection | 17.4 | 17.4 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: CHI is implied for 24.8 points, 9th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Context: ATL ranks 13th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to QBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: a retractable roof, treated as indoors.
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 CAR 37.3, Week 2 MIN 7.7, Week 3 did not play, Week 4 did not play, Week 5 did not play. Bye in Week 10.
2026 season · the games so far
Caleb Williams 2026 stats so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
Week 5 injury report Questionable — hamstring, limited in practice
- PPR pts / game
- 22.5
- QB rank
- QB5
- of 41 with 2+ games
- Games
- 2
- CHI
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 45.0 | 22.5 |
| Half-PPR | 45.0 | 22.5 |
| PPR | 45.0 | 22.5 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GB | Did not play · Questionable (hamstring) on the Week 5 injury report | ||||||||
| 4 | NYJ | Did not play | ||||||||
| 3 | PHI | Did not play | ||||||||
| 2 | MIN | 7.7 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 86% | Score this game |
| 1 | CAR | 37.3 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 65 | 2 | 100% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wks 1–2) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 93% |
| Carries per game | 7.5 |
| PPR points per game | 22.5 |
2 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
This week · CHI at ATL
Week 6 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 17.4
- PPR
- 17.4
- Standard
- 17.4
Range 6.5–28.6
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 32.0 att · 227 pass yds · 1.35 pass TD · 0.62 INT · 5.2 car · 28 rush yds · 0.30 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 92% of CHI's pass attempts × 33.6 a game · 16% of CHI's carries × 28.7 a game
- 30.2 attempts · 4.9 carries
- Efficiency
- 7.1 yds/attempt
- 214 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.50 TD per 100 attempts
- 1.56 TD
- Vegas
- CHI implied 24.8 vs 25.4 in his games (×0.97)
- −1% volume, −5% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason QB9 in FFC ADP → 18.5 PPG, 50% weight at 2 games
- +1.0 half-PPR pts (16.4 → 17.4)
- Context (not in projection)
- ATL allows 1.02× league QB points (rank 13 of 32)
| Opponent | at ATLCHI on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 24.8CHI · consensus line |
| ATL vs QB | Allows the 13th-most fantasy points to QBs1.02× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 8% of CHI's carries inside the 204 of 48, through Week 5 · 1 inside the 5 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | QB7 of 40 · 18.0 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 8 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 62 of 85 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 8:19 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
At 18.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Caleb Williams outproduced what a QB14 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 109.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 114 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 18.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +4.6 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +0.9pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 15 | Sleeper |
Game environment: Implied team total CHI 23.5
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Caleb Williams was drafted as the QB14 — ADP 109.9 — in July 2026. His 18.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- ADP 109.9
- Overall ADP rank 114
- Sleeper search rank 15
- Fantasy points / game 18.7
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Caleb Williams's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Caleb Williams's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+0.9pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 0.9-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
-
Checkpoint
Implied team total, Week 1 lines
CHI 23.5 · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
CHI offense's strong game environment holds up
Poor pick if instead
the market total overstates the CHI offense this week
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse · nflverse schedule. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
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