Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor?
Christian McCaffrey was the stronger 2025 producer — 21.5 vs 20.0 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 4.9 vs 6.1). That gap was the draft-day case for Christian McCaffrey.
This week's projections are in the Week 9 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 9: start Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor?
Lean Christian McCaffrey over Jonathan Taylor (2.1 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 62% of the time.
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RB · SF
Christian McCaffrey
20.0 pts projected · range 12.8–28.9
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RB · IND
Jonathan Taylor
17.9 pts projected · range 10.7–26.9
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 8, Christian McCaffrey has out-scored Jonathan Taylor by 2.6 PPR points per game, 20.6 to 18.0 (Christian McCaffrey 7 games, Jonathan Taylor 8 games).
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
| Christian McCaffrey | Metric | Jonathan Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 8 |
| 20.6 | PPR points per game | 18.0 |
| 12.0 | Carries per game | 18.5 |
| 20% | Target share | 13% |
| 69% | Snap share | 77% |
| 23.3 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 15.6 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Christian McCaffrey · Jonathan Taylor
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Christian McCaffrey | Metric | Jonathan Taylor |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 (RB3) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 6.1 (RB4) |
| 5 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 6 |
| 21.5 | Fantasy points / game | 20.0 |
| 23.4% | Target share | 11.0% |
| 22.8% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 11.7% |
| 5 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 4 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Christian McCaffrey at ADP 4.9, Jonathan Taylor at ADP 6.1. On 2025 production it is 21.5 vs 20.0 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Jonathan Taylor
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
11.7% last 3 vs 11.0% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Jonathan Taylor's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
Poor move if instead
Jonathan Taylor's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
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Checkpoint · Christian McCaffrey
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
22.8% last 3 vs 23.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Christian McCaffrey's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Christian McCaffrey's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.