What was Jonathan Taylor's 2026 fantasy football draft ADP?

Jonathan Taylor (Running back, IND) was drafted at ADP 6.1, the RB4 by ADP, in Half-PPR leagues during the July 2026 draft season (Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot, Jul 15, 2026). That is a draft-day figure, not a current one — ADP stops moving once the season starts.

What was the draft-day read on Jonathan Taylor for 2026?

At 20.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Jonathan Taylor outproduced what a RB4 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025. Jonathan Taylor was drafted as the RB4 — ADP 6.1 — in July 2026. His 20.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the RB starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.

What had to go right for Jonathan Taylor in 2026?

From the July 2026 draft-day read: Jonathan Taylor's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip — checkpoint: Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025) (then at 11.7% last 3 vs 11.0% season (2025)).

What was the risk in drafting Jonathan Taylor in 2026?

From the July 2026 draft-day read: Jonathan Taylor's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts — checkpoint: Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025) (then at 11.7% last 3 vs 11.0% season (2025)).

Running back · IND · 2026 season stats

Jonathan Taylor stats & 2026 fantasy outlook

Through Week 4 of 2026, Jonathan Taylor has 86.2 PPR points in 4 games: 21.6 per game, RB6 of 91 in PPR points per game.

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Week 5 injury reportInjury report — not injury related: resting player, limited in practice

Season so far · through Week 4

Half-PPR/g: 20.3 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 81.2 in all.; 20.3; 81.2 total
PPR rank: RB6 of 91 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.; RB6; of 91
Games: 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.; 4
car/g: 21.5 carries per team game this season.; 21.5

PPR 86.2 (21.6/g) · Std 76.2 (19.1/g)

This week · Week 5

Projected 16.6 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 9.4 to 25.5.

at PIT · Sun 1:00 PM ET

How the 16.6-point Half-PPR projection is built, one step at a time
Step	Points	Running total
Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason RB4 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line	17.3	17.3
Vegas: IND implied 20.8 vs 22.4 in his games	−0.7	16.6
Matchup: PIT 13th softest vs RB: already in the Vegas line	0.0	16.6
Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out	0.0	16.6
Projection	16.6	16.6

Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.

Hurts: IND is implied for 20.8 points, tied for 18th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
Context: PIT ranks 13th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to RBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
Context: kickoff-hour forecast of gusts to 26 mph, past the wind line which the weather report flags for passers, receivers and kickers (context, not in the projection).

Game log · half-PPR

2026 season · the games so far

Jonathan Taylor 2026 stats so far

Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of Oct 8, 2026

PPR pts / game: 21.6
RB rank: RB6; of 91 with 2+ games
Games: 4; IND

Jonathan Taylor 2026 fantasy points by scoring format, through Week 4
Scoring	Total	Per game
Standard	76.2	19.1
Half-PPR	81.2	20.3
PPR	86.2	21.6

RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.

Game log

Swipe for every stat and the calculator link

Jonathan Taylor 2026 game log, most recent week first
Wk	Opp	PPR pts	Carries	Rush yds	Rush TD	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Snap %	Calculator
4	WAS	22.7	20	95	2	4	1	2	71%	Score this game
3	HOU	9.2	23	68	0	3	2	4	85%	Score this game
2	KC	29.2	24	92	2	4	4	40	94%	Score this game
1	BAL	25.1	19	98	2	4	3	23	89%	Score this game

PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.

Usage trend

Swipe for the season and the change

Jonathan Taylor usage, last 3 games against the season
Per game	Last 3 (Wks 2–4)	Season	Change
Snap share	83%	85%	−1
Carries per game	22.3	21.5	+0.8
Targets per game	3.7	3.8	−0.1
Target share	12%	13%	−1
PPR points per game	20.4	21.5	−1.2

Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.

This week · IND at PIT

Week 5 projection

Week 5 injury report Injury report — not injury related: resting player, limited in practice

Half‑PPR: 16.6
PPR: 17.9
Standard: 15.2

Range 9.4–25.5

Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.

Projected line: 19.4 car · 84 rush yds · 2.70 rec · 19 rec yds · 0.85 TD

Show the math

Volume: 67% of IND's carries × 27.1 a game · 11% of IND's targets × 31.7 a game; 17.8 carries · 3.4 targets
Efficiency: 74% catch · 5.3 yds/target · 4.3 yds/carry; 2.5 rec · 95 yds
Scoring chances: 4.14 TD per 100 carries, 3.01 per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage; 0.78 TD
Vegas: IND implied 20.8 vs 22.4 in his games (×0.93); −4% volume, −14% TD rate
Market prior: Preseason RB4 in FFC ADP → 19.3 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games; +1.3 half-PPR pts (15.2 → 16.6)
Context (not in projection): PIT allows 1.03× league RB points (rank 13 of 32)

Week 5 matchup facts
Opponent	at PITIND on the road
Kickoff	Sun 1:00 PM ET
Implied total	20.8IND · consensus line
Wind	Gust flag: gusts to 26 mphKickoff-hour forecast, E 12 mph sustained · context — not in the projection
PIT vs RB	Allows the 13th-most fantasy points to RBs1.03× the league average · context — not in the projection
Red zone	73% of IND's carries inside the 2016 of 22, through Week 4 · 7 inside the 5 · 5 TD
Rest of season	RB4 of 58 · 17.8 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 13

Trade value 74 of 100

Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 4 of 84 players above replacement.

See the trade value chart Put him in a trade

Compare him with another player

Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.

Draft-day record · July 2026

The July 2026 draft-day read

This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools

At 20.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Jonathan Taylor outproduced what a RB4 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.

This week's projection is in the Week 5 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.

high confidence ADP 6.1 · RB4 · Half-PPR · draft ADP as of Jul 15, 2026

By the numbers

The numbers behind the read

Cited Jonathan Taylor metrics and their data sources
Metric	Value	Source
ADP (July 2026)	6.1	Fantasy Football Calculator
Overall ADP rank (July 2026)	6	Fantasy Football Calculator
Fantasy points / game	20.0	nflverse
Points over expected (FPOE)	+6.7	nflverse
Target share	11.0%	nflverse
Target share, last 3 games (2025)	11.7%	nflverse
Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025)	-6.3pp	nflverse
Sleeper search rank (July 2026)	4	Sleeper

xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.

Chalk

The consensus read

Jonathan Taylor was drafted as the RB4 — ADP 6.1 — in July 2026. His 20.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the RB starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.

ADP 6.1
Overall ADP rank 6
Sleeper search rank 4
Fantasy points / game 20.0

Sharp

The edge case — what had to be true

Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.

Checkpoint

Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)

11.7% last 3 vs 11.0% season (2025) · as of July 2026

Strong pick if you believed

Jonathan Taylor's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip

Poor pick if instead

Jonathan Taylor's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint

Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)

+6.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026

Strong pick if you believed

Jonathan Taylor's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance

Poor pick if instead

Jonathan Taylor's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint

Snap share trend, season (2025)

-6.3pp (2025) · as of July 2026

Strong pick if you believed

Jonathan Taylor's snap dip was game-script, not a demotion

Poor pick if instead

Jonathan Taylor's snap share is shrinking

Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).

FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.

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