Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Dalton Kincaid or Isaiah Likely?
Dalton Kincaid was the stronger 2025 producer — 8.9 vs 4.0 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 145.2 vs 146.2). That gap was the draft-day case for Dalton Kincaid.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Dalton Kincaid or Isaiah Likely?
Slight lean: Isaiah Likely over Dalton Kincaid (1.1 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 57% of the time.
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TE · NYG
Isaiah Likely
8.9 pts projected · range 4.2–16.4
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TE · BUF
Dalton Kincaid
7.8 pts projected · range 3.1–15.3
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Isaiah Likely has out-scored Dalton Kincaid by 1.8 PPR points per game, 13.3 to 11.5 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
Isaiah Likely · Week 5 injury report Injury report — knee, limited in practice
| Dalton Kincaid | Metric | Isaiah Likely |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 11.5 | PPR points per game | 13.3 |
| 17% | Target share | 31% |
| 4.8 | Targets per game | 8.8 |
| 66% | Snap share | 67% |
| 9.3 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 8.4 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Dalton Kincaid · Isaiah Likely
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Dalton Kincaid | Metric | Isaiah Likely |
|---|---|---|
| 145.2 (TE15) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 146.2 (TE16) |
| 150 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 151 |
| 8.9 | Fantasy points / game | 4.0 |
| 14.9% | Target share | — |
| 10.6% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 81 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 113 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Dalton Kincaid at ADP 145.2, Isaiah Likely at ADP 146.2. On 2025 production it is 8.9 vs 4.0 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Dalton Kincaid
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
10.6% last 3 vs 14.9% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Dalton Kincaid's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Dalton Kincaid's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.