Dalton Kincaid: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Week 9 call · Half-PPR
Sit him. Projected 7.7 half-PPR, the TE16 this week, in a dome: below the starters and flex spots of a 12-team league. No injury designation yet (the Week 9 report starts Wed, Nov 4).
Start, flex or sitOur one-line weekly call, for a 12-team league: start a top-12 QB, top-24 RB or WR, or top-12 TE this week; flex the next ones who would still fill a flex spot; sit the rest.More in the glossary : a 12-team league's starters and flex spots, from this week's projections.
Dalton Kincaid
TE · Buffalo Bills
- Week 8 injury reportQuestionable — chest, limited in practice
This week · Week 9
Projected 7.7 half-PPR points in Week 9, with a likely range of 3.0 to 15.2.Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary ProjectionOur estimate of a player’s fantasy points this week, built from his share of his team’s targets, carries and passes, how much his team is expected to score, and his preseason value. It is a middle outcome, not a promise.More in the glossary
at MIN · Mon 8:15 PM ET
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary
Forecast 7.7 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.5, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 7 games, with his preseason TE13 ADP at 22% weight, at his usual line | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| Vegas: BUF implied 24.8 vs 28.1 in his games | −0.5 | 7.7 |
| Matchup: MIN 1st toughest vs TE: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 7.7 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 7.7 |
| Projection | 7.7 | 7.7 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary Context: BUF is implied for 24.8 points, 11th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary No effect this week: MIN is the 1st toughest of 32 defenses against TEs (the 1st toughest allows the fewest fantasy points). It is context, not in the projection: with a Vegas line, the model adds nothing for the matchup.
- Context: played indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Season so far · through Week 8
- PPG · points per gameFantasy points divided by games played, so a player is not marked down for the weeks he sat out.More in the glossary
- 9.4 half-PPR points a game over 7 games, 65.6 in all.
- PPR rank
- TE9 of 101 TEs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 7 games with a stat line through Week 8.
- 17.9% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 79.1 (11.3/g) · Std 52.1 (7.4/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 HOU 15.5, Week 2 DET 19.0, Week 3 LAC 2.8, Week 4 NE 1.2, Week 5 LAR 3.2, Week 6 LV 7.3, Week 7 bye, Week 8 BAL 16.6.
This week · BUF at MIN
Week 9 projection
- Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary
- 7.7
- PPR · point per receptionEvery catch is worth 1 point on top of the yards and touchdowns. It lifts pass-catching running backs, slot receivers and tight ends.More in the glossary
- 9.5
- StandardScoring where a catch is worth nothing on its own: only yards and touchdowns count. It favours running backs who score near the goal line over receivers who catch short passes.More in the glossary
- 5.8
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary 3.0–15.2
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 4.9 tgt · 3.64 rec · 44 yds · 0.23 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 16% of BUF's targets × 30.8 a game
- 4.7 targets
- Efficiency
- 74% catch · 8.7 yds/target
- 3.5 rec · 42 yds
- Scoring chances
- 5.92 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.22 TD
- Vegas
- BUF implied 24.8 vs 28.1 in his games (×0.88)
- −6% volume, −22% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason TE13 in FFC ADP → 8.7 PPG, 22% weight at 7 games
- +0.3 half-PPR pts (7.4 → 7.7)
- Context (not in projection)
- MIN allows 0.63× league TE points (1st toughest of 32)
| Opponent | at MINBUF on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Mon 8:15 PM ET |
| Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary | 24.8BUF · consensus line |
| Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary | Allows the fewest fantasy points to TEs0.63× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zoneThe last 20 yards before the end zone. Most touchdowns start there, so targets and carries inside the 20 point to touchdown chances.More in the glossary | 20% of BUF's targets inside the 206 of 30, through Week 8 · 2 inside the 10 · 1 TD |
| ROS · rest of seasonEverything left on the schedule from this week on. Rest-of-season value is what matters for trades and pickups, where one week is noise.More in the glossary | TE11 of 58 · 8.5 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 9 games left through Week 17 |
Trade value 1 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 9–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 80 of 86 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 8, consensus line as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:20 PM ET, no Week 9 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market priorWhere drafters valued a player before the season (his preseason ADP), blended into our projections so a few early games cannot swing his number too far.More in the glossary : preseason ADP · average draft positionWhere a player went on average in fantasy drafts: an ADP of 4.2 means he was usually the fourth player taken. Ours is preseason ADP, frozen once drafts end.More in the glossary from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
Week 8 injury report Questionable — chest, limited in practice
- PPR pts / game
- 11.3
- TE rank
- TE9
- of 101 with 2+ games
- Games
- 7
- BUF
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 52.1 | 7.4 |
| Half-PPR | 65.6 | 9.4 |
| PPR | 79.1 | 11.3 |
TE rank is by PPR points per game among TEs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR ptsHalf · Std | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | BAL | 18.6 16.6 · 14.6 | 6 | 4 | 86 | 1 | 18% | 57% | Score this game |
| 7 | — | — | Bye week — no game | ||||||
| 6 | LV | 10.8 7.3 · 3.8 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 27% | 72% | Score this game |
| 5 | LAR | 3.7 3.2 · 2.7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 11% | 70% | Score this game |
| 4 | NE | 1.7 1.2 · 0.7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7% | 59% | Score this game |
| 3 | LAC | 3.8 2.8 · 1.8 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 12% | 67% | Score this game |
| 2 | DET | 22.5 19.0 · 15.5 | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 29% | 66% | Score this game |
| 1 | HOU | 18.0 15.5 · 13.0 | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 21% | 72% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game; the smaller line under it is the same game in Half-PPR, then Standard (half a point, and a point, less per catch). "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 5–8) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Targets per game | 5.3 | 5.0 | +0.3 |
| Target share | 19% | 18% | +1 |
| Air-yards share | 15% | 18% | −3 |
| PPR points per game | 11.0 | 11.3 | −0.3 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Preseason read (July 2026)The draft-day verdict, 2025 stats, Chalk & Sharp and July ADP, as published.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
At 8.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Dalton Kincaid outproduced what a TE15 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 9 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 145.2 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 150 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.9 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.0 | nflverse |
| Target share | 14.9% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 10.6% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 81 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Dalton Kincaid was drafted as the TE15 — ADP 145.2 — in July 2026. His 8.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 145.2
- Overall ADP rank 150
- Sleeper search rank 81
- Fantasy points / game 8.9
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
10.6% last 3 vs 14.9% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Dalton Kincaid's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Dalton Kincaid's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Dalton Kincaid's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Dalton Kincaid's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
Everything for Week 9, on one page.
The top of every weekly board on one page: Vegas implied totals, wind, DST and kicker streamers, waiver risers, injuries, soft matchups and byes.
Open the Week 9 cheat sheet