Dalton Kincaid: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 8.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Dalton Kincaid outproduced what a TE15 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Dalton Kincaid
TE · Buffalo Bills
This week · Week 6
Projected 8.0 half-PPR points in Week 6, with a likely range of 3.3 to 15.5.
at LV · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Forecast 8.0 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 0.3, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason TE13 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Vegas: BUF implied 29.8 vs 27.9 in his games | +0.3 | 8.0 |
| Matchup: LV 7th softest vs TE: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 8.0 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 8.0 |
| Projection | 8.0 | 8.0 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: BUF is implied for 29.8 points, 2nd-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: LV ranks 7th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to TEs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: played indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 9.6 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 38.5 in all.
- PPR rank
- TE12 of 91 TEs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- tgt share
- 17.3% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 46.0 (11.5/g) · Std 31.0 (7.8/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 HOU 15.5, Week 2 DET 19.0, Week 3 LAC 2.8, Week 4 NE 1.2, Week 5 not played yet. Bye in Week 7.
This week · BUF at LV
Week 6 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 8.0
- PPR
- 9.8
- Standard
- 6.2
Range 3.3–15.5
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 4.8 tgt · 3.61 rec · 47 yds · 0.26 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 14% of BUF's targets × 30.7 a game
- 4.6 targets
- Efficiency
- 75% catch · 9.2 yds/target
- 3.5 rec · 45 yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.85 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.25 TD
- Vegas
- BUF implied 29.8 vs 27.9 in his games (×1.07)
- +3% volume, +14% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason TE13 in FFC ADP → 8.7 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- +0.3 half-PPR pts (7.7 → 8.0)
- Context (not in projection)
- LV allows 1.19× league TE points (rank 7 of 32)
| Opponent | at LVBUF on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| Implied total | 29.8BUF · consensus line |
| LV vs TE | Allows the 7th-most fantasy points to TEs1.19× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 6% of BUF's targets inside the 201 of 16, through Week 5 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | TE15 of 53 · 8.1 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 7 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 8:19 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 11.5
- TE rank
- TE12
- of 91 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- BUF
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 31.0 | 7.8 |
| Half-PPR | 38.5 | 9.6 |
| PPR | 46.0 | 11.5 |
TE rank is by PPR points per game among TEs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | LAR | Not played yet | |||||||
| 4 | NE | 1.7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7% | 59% | Score this game |
| 3 | LAC | 3.8 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 12% | 67% | Score this game |
| 2 | DET | 22.5 | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 29% | 66% | Score this game |
| 1 | HOU | 18.0 | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 21% | 72% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Targets per game | 4.3 | 4.8 | −0.4 |
| Target share | 16% | 17% | −1 |
| Air-yards share | 19% | 21% | −2 |
| PPR points per game | 9.3 | 11.5 | −2.2 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 145.2 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 150 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.9 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.0 | nflverse |
| Target share | 14.9% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 10.6% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 81 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Dalton Kincaid was drafted as the TE15 — ADP 145.2 — in July 2026. His 8.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 145.2
- Overall ADP rank 150
- Sleeper search rank 81
- Fantasy points / game 8.9
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
10.6% last 3 vs 14.9% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Dalton Kincaid's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Dalton Kincaid's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Dalton Kincaid's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Dalton Kincaid's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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