Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Jake Ferguson or Brenton Strange?
Jake Ferguson and Brenton Strange are a near-tie on 2025 production (8.7 vs 7.9 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Jake Ferguson or Brenton Strange?
Only Brenton Strange has a projection for Week 5 (7.8 pts).
Jake Ferguson's game has already kicked off, so there's no gap to judge.
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TE · JAX
Brenton Strange
7.8 pts projected · range 3.1–15.3
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Kicked off
Jake Ferguson
His Week 5 game already kicked off (Thu 8:15 PM ET) — too late to change.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Brenton Strange has out-scored Jake Ferguson by 0.1 PPR points per game, 9.2 to 9.1 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| Jake Ferguson | Metric | Brenton Strange |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 9.1 | PPR points per game | 9.2 |
| 11% | Target share | 19% |
| 3.8 | Targets per game | 4.5 |
| 69% | Snap share | 79% |
| 11.2 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 8.8 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Jake Ferguson · Brenton Strange
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Jake Ferguson | Metric | Brenton Strange |
|---|---|---|
| 137.7 (TE13) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 140.7 (TE14) |
| 145 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 148 |
| 8.7 | Fantasy points / game | 7.9 |
| 16.5% | Target share | — |
| 8.9% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 97 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 104 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Jake Ferguson at ADP 137.7, Brenton Strange at ADP 140.7. On 2025 production it is 8.7 vs 7.9 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Jake Ferguson
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
8.9% last 3 vs 16.5% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Jake Ferguson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Jake Ferguson's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.