Jake Ferguson: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Jake Ferguson averaged 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a TE13 draft slot is worth, so the price reads roughly in line with the production. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 137.7 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 145 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +0.8 | nflverse |
| Target share | 16.5% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 8.9% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 97 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts Jake Ferguson as the TE13 (ADP 137.7). His 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- adp 137.7
- adp_rank 145
- search_rank 97
- ppg 8.7
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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Jake Ferguson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
8.9% last 3 vs 16.5% season (2025)
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Jake Ferguson's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
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Jake Ferguson's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
8.9% last 3 vs 16.5% season (2025)
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Jake Ferguson's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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This page is a league-average read. The AI assistant weighs Jake Ferguson against your scoring, your roster build, and who is still on the board when your pick comes up.
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