Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Jaylen Waddle or Luther Burden?
Jaylen Waddle was the stronger 2025 producer — 10.1 vs 7.0 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 44 vs 44.9). That gap was the draft-day case for Jaylen Waddle.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Jaylen Waddle or Luther Burden?
Coin flip: Luther Burden III and Jaylen Waddle are 0.3 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Luther Burden III has the higher floor (3.2 vs 2.9) and CHI is implied for more points (23.3 vs DEN's 22.8).
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WR · CHI
Luther Burden III
9.6 pts projected · range 3.2–18.4
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WR · DEN
Jaylen Waddle
9.3 pts projected · range 2.9–18.2
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Luther Burden has out-scored Jaylen Waddle by 0.8 PPR points per game, 11.7 to 11.0 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| Jaylen Waddle | Metric | Luther Burden |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 11.0 | PPR points per game | 11.7 |
| 21% | Target share | 23% |
| 6.5 | Targets per game | 7.3 |
| 69% | Snap share | 62% |
| 14.2 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 12.5 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Jaylen Waddle · Luther Burden
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Jaylen Waddle | Metric | Luther Burden |
|---|---|---|
| 44 (WR23) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 44.9 (WR24) |
| 45 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 47 |
| 10.1 | Fantasy points / game | 7.0 |
| 23.3% | Target share | — |
| 17.0% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 42 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 40 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Jaylen Waddle at ADP 44, Luther Burden at ADP 44.9. On 2025 production it is 10.1 vs 7.0 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Jaylen Waddle
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
17.0% last 3 vs 23.3% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Jaylen Waddle's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Jaylen Waddle's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.