Luther Burden: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Luther Burden's 7.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR24 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Luther Burden
WR · Chicago Bears
This week · Week 5
at GB · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Week 5 game underway or final: a projection closes at kickoff.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 9.4 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 37.4 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR29 of 145 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- tgt share
- 23.3% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 46.9 (11.7/g) · Std 27.9 (7.0/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 CAR 7.0, Week 2 MIN 4.7, Week 3 PHI 16.3, Week 4 NYJ 9.4, Week 5 not played yet. Bye in Week 10.
This week · CHI at GB
Week 5
Week 5 game underway or final: a projection closes at kickoff. See the game log
| Opponent | at GBCHI on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Rest of season | WR26 of 100 · 9.7 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 4 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 73 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 1 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 11.7
- WR rank
- WR29
- of 145 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- CHI
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 27.9 | 7.0 |
| Half-PPR | 37.4 | 9.3 |
| PPR | 46.9 | 11.7 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GB | Not played yet | |||||||
| 4 | NYJ | 11.4 | 6 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 19% | 56% | Score this game |
| 3 | PHI | 19.8 | 11 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 32% | 61% | Score this game |
| 2 | MIN | 6.2 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 23% | 57% | Score this game |
| 1 | CAR | 9.5 | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 19% | 73% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Targets per game | 8.0 | 7.3 | +0.8 |
| Target share | 25% | 23% | +1 |
| Air-yards share | 34% | 28% | +6 |
| PPR points per game | 12.5 | 11.7 | +0.7 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 44.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 47 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 7.0 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.3 | nflverse |
| Target share | 13.1% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 20.9% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 40 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Luther Burden was drafted as the WR24 — ADP 44.9 — in July 2026. His 7.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the WR starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- ADP 44.9
- Overall ADP rank 47
- Sleeper search rank 40
- Fantasy points / game 7.0
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.9% last 3 vs 13.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Luther Burden's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor pick if instead
Luther Burden's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.3 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Luther Burden's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Luther Burden's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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