Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Mark Andrews or Dallas Goedert?
Dallas Goedert was the stronger 2025 producer — 10.3 vs 6.3 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 128.4 vs 130). That gap was the draft-day case for Dallas Goedert.
This week's projections are in the Week 9 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 9: start Mark Andrews or Dallas Goedert?
Slight lean: Dallas Goedert over Mark Andrews (1.6 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 57% of the time.
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TE · PHI
Dallas Goedert
7.7 pts projected · range 3.0–15.2
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TE · BAL
Mark Andrews
6.1 pts projected · range 1.4–13.6
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 8, Dallas Goedert has out-scored Mark Andrews by 3.9 PPR points per game, 10.7 to 6.8 (Mark Andrews 8 games, Dallas Goedert 6 games).
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
Mark Andrews · Week 8 injury report Injury report — hand, full practice
Dallas Goedert · Week 8 injury report Injury report — knee, full practice
| Mark Andrews | Metric | Dallas Goedert |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Games | 6 |
| 6.8 | PPR points per game | 10.7 |
| 19% | Target share | 18% |
| 5.1 | Targets per game | 5.8 |
| 64% | Snap share | 71% |
| 3.7 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 9.7 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Mark Andrews · Dallas Goedert
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Mark Andrews | Metric | Dallas Goedert |
|---|---|---|
| 128.4 (TE11) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 130 (TE12) |
| 130 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 133 |
| 6.3 | Fantasy points / game | 10.3 |
| 17.1% | Target share | — |
| 17.5% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 96 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 94 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Mark Andrews at ADP 128.4, Dallas Goedert at ADP 130. On 2025 production it is 6.3 vs 10.3 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Mark Andrews
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
17.5% last 3 vs 17.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: 0.4 points between the last three games and the season is ordinary game-to-game noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.