Dallas Goedert: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 10.3 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Dallas Goedert outproduced what a TE12 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Dallas Goedert
TE · Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 5 statusStatus unknown · Missed Weeks 3–4 — no Week 5 report from PHI yet
This week · Week 5
Projected 7.6 half-PPR points if he plays in Week 5, with a likely range of 2.9 to 15.1.Limited data: only 2 2026 games behind this projection, so it leans on his preseason ADP (50% weight). Expect it to move.
at JAX · Sun 9:30 AM ET
Forecast 7.6 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.6, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 2 games, with his preseason TE10 ADP at 50% weight, at his usual line | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| Vegas: PHI implied 17.3 vs 23.9 in his games | −0.6 | 7.6 |
| Matchup: JAX 14th toughest vs TE: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 7.6 |
| Availability: Status unknown: projected as if he plays | 0.0 | 7.6 |
| Projection | 7.6 | 7.6 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Hurts: PHI is implied for 17.3 points, 27th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Context: JAX ranks 19th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to TEs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast S 10 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 11.3 half-PPR points a game over 2 games, 22.6 in all.
- PPR rank
- TE10 of 82 TEs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 2 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- tgt share
- 7.3% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 25.1 (12.6/g) · Std 20.1 (10.1/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 WAS 21.7, Week 2 TEN 0.9, Week 3 did not play, Week 4 did not play. Bye in Week 10.
This week · PHI at JAX
Week 5 projection
Week 5 status Status unknownMissed Weeks 3–4 — no Week 5 report from PHI yet
- Half‑PPR
- 7.6
- PPR
- 9.5
- Standard
- 5.8
Range 2.9–15.1
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 5.1 tgt · 3.68 rec · 41 yds · 0.28 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 15% of PHI's targets × 33.3 a game
- 4.2 targets
- Efficiency
- 72% catch · 7.7 yds/target
- 3.1 rec · 34 yds
- Scoring chances
- 6.49 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.23 TD
- Vegas
- PHI implied 17.3 vs 23.9 in his games (×0.72)
- −15% volume, −48% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason TE10 in FFC ADP → 8.9 PPG, 50% weight at 2 games
- +1.3 half-PPR pts (6.3 → 7.6)
- Status
- Missed Weeks 3–4 — no Week 5 report from PHI yet
- not applied: projected as if he plays
- Context (not in projection)
- JAX allows 0.89× league TE points (rank 19 of 32)
| Opponent | at JAXPHI on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 9:30 AM ET |
| Implied total | 17.3PHI · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: S 10 mph |
| JAX vs TE | Allows the 19th-most fantasy points to TEs0.89× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 15% of PHI's targets inside the 202 of 13, through Week 4 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | TE14 of 48 · 8.5 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 12.6
- TE rank
- TE10
- of 82 with 2+ games
- Games
- 2
- PHI
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 20.1 | 10.1 |
| Half-PPR | 22.6 | 11.3 |
| PPR | 25.1 | 12.6 |
TE rank is by PPR points per game among TEs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LAR | Did not play | |||||||
| 3 | CHI | Did not play | |||||||
| 2 | TEN | 1.4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6% | 25% | Score this game |
| 1 | WAS | 23.7 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23% | 95% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wks 1–2) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 60% |
| Targets per game | 3.5 |
| Target share | 15% |
| Air-yards share | 12% |
| PPR points per game | 12.5 |
2 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 130.0 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 133 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 10.3 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.0 | nflverse |
| Target share | 20.8% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 25.5% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 94 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Dallas Goedert was drafted as the TE12 — ADP 130 — in July 2026. His 10.3 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- ADP 130.0
- Overall ADP rank 133
- Sleeper search rank 94
- Fantasy points / game 10.3
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
25.5% last 3 vs 20.8% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Dallas Goedert's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor pick if instead
Dallas Goedert's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+3.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Dallas Goedert's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Dallas Goedert's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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