Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Marvin Harrison or Courtland Sutton?
Courtland Sutton was the stronger 2025 producer — 10.7 vs 8.9 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 66.4 vs 66.9). That gap was the draft-day case for Courtland Sutton.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Marvin Harrison or Courtland Sutton?
Coin flip: Courtland Sutton and Marvin Harrison Jr. are 0.4 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Courtland Sutton has the higher floor (1.4 vs 1.0) and ARI is implied for more points (24.5 vs DEN's 22.8).
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WR · DEN
Courtland Sutton
7.8 pts projected · range 1.4–16.7
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WR · ARI
Marvin Harrison Jr.
7.4 pts projected · range 1.0–16.2
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Marvin Harrison has out-scored Courtland Sutton by 0.5 PPR points per game, 4.9 to 4.4 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| Marvin Harrison | Metric | Courtland Sutton |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 4.9 | PPR points per game | 4.4 |
| 8% | Target share | 18% |
| 3.3 | Targets per game | 5.5 |
| 74% | Snap share | 77% |
| 5.1 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 4.8 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Marvin Harrison · Courtland Sutton
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Marvin Harrison | Metric | Courtland Sutton |
|---|---|---|
| 66.4 (WR33) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 66.9 (WR34) |
| 67 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 68 |
| 8.9 | Fantasy points / game | 10.7 |
| 18.1% | Target share | 21.1% |
| 10.7% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 20.6% |
| 77 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 72 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Marvin Harrison at ADP 66.4, Courtland Sutton at ADP 66.9. On 2025 production it is 8.9 vs 10.7 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Courtland Sutton
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.6% last 3 vs 21.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Courtland Sutton's target share is fading from the season baseline
Poor move if instead
Courtland Sutton's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
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Checkpoint · Marvin Harrison
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
10.7% last 3 vs 18.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Marvin Harrison's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Marvin Harrison's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.