Courtland Sutton: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 10.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Courtland Sutton outproduced what a WR34 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Courtland Sutton
WR · Denver Broncos
This week · Week 5
Projected 7.8 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 1.4 to 16.7.
at LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET
Forecast 7.8 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.2, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason WR30 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Vegas: DEN implied 22.8 vs 22.5 in his games | −0.2 | 7.8 |
| Matchup: LAC 16th softest vs WR: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 7.8 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 7.8 |
| Projection | 7.8 | 7.8 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: DEN is implied for 22.8 points, tied for 13th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Context: LAC ranks 16th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to WRs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: played indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 3.3 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 13.1 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR96 of 145 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- tgt share
- 18.0% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 17.6 (4.4/g) · Std 8.6 (2.2/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 KC 2.1, Week 2 JAX 4.0, Week 3 LAR 6.1, Week 4 SF 0.9. Bye in Week 10.
This week · DEN at LAC
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 7.8
- PPR
- 9.5
- Standard
- 6.2
Range 1.4–16.7
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 6.2 tgt · 3.26 rec · 41 yds · 0.34 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 18% of DEN's targets × 30.2 a game
- 5.5 targets
- Efficiency
- 54% catch · 6.9 yds/target
- 2.9 rec · 37 yds
- Scoring chances
- 5.84 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.30 TD
- Vegas
- DEN implied 22.8 vs 22.5 in his games (×1.01)
- +1% volume, +2% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason WR30 in FFC ADP → 9.7 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- +0.9 half-PPR pts (6.9 → 7.8)
- Context (not in projection)
- LAC allows 1.00× league WR points (rank 16 of 32)
| Opponent | at LACDEN on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 4:05 PM ET |
| Implied total | 22.8DEN · consensus line |
| LAC vs WR | Allows the 16th-most fantasy points to WRs1.00× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 29% of DEN's targets inside the 205 of 17, through Week 4 · 3 inside the 10 |
| Rest of season | WR44 of 100 · 8.3 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 4.4
- WR rank
- WR96
- of 145 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- DEN
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 8.6 | 2.1 |
| Half-PPR | 13.1 | 3.3 |
| PPR | 17.6 | 4.4 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SF | 1.4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16% | 73% | Score this game |
| 3 | LAR | 7.6 | 7 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 23% | 87% | Score this game |
| 2 | JAX | 5.5 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 14% | 73% | Score this game |
| 1 | KC | 3.1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 19% | 76% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Targets per game | 5.7 | 5.5 | +0.2 |
| Target share | 18% | 18% | 0 |
| Air-yards share | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| PPR points per game | 4.8 | 4.4 | +0.4 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 66.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 68 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 10.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | -0.3 | nflverse |
| Target share | 21.1% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 20.6% | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | -0.7pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 72 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Courtland Sutton was drafted as the WR34 — ADP 66.9 — in July 2026. His 10.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 66.9
- Overall ADP rank 68
- Sleeper search rank 72
- Fantasy points / game 10.7
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.6% last 3 vs 21.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Courtland Sutton's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Courtland Sutton's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
-0.3 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: within half a point a game of expectation, so his usage explains his scoring and this checkpoint does not lean either way.
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
-0.7pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 0.7-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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