Who was the better 2026 draft pick, Matthew Stafford or Caleb Williams?

Matthew Stafford was the stronger 2025 producer — 20.6 vs 18.7 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 105.5 vs 109.9). That gap was the draft-day case for Matthew Stafford. July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Matthew Stafford at ADP 105.5, Caleb Williams at ADP 109.9. On 2025 production it is 20.6 vs 18.7 half-PPR points per game.

Where did Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams go in 2026 drafts?

Matthew Stafford was drafted at ADP 105.5 (QB13); Caleb Williams at ADP 109.9 (QB14) — Half-PPR, Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026. Both are July 2026 draft-day figures, not current ADP.

What would have made this the right pick?

From the July 2026 draft-day read: Caleb Williams's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline — checkpoint: Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025) (then at +4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)).

What would have made it the wrong pick?

From the July 2026 draft-day read: Caleb Williams's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance — checkpoint: Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025) (then at +4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)).

Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read

Matthew Stafford or Caleb Williams?

Matthew Stafford was the stronger 2025 producer — 20.6 vs 18.7 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 105.5 vs 109.9). That gap was the draft-day case for Matthew Stafford.

This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.

high confidence Quarterback · Half-PPR · draft ADP as of Jul 15, 2026

This week's start/sit · Half-PPR

Week 5: start Matthew Stafford or Caleb Williams?

Matthew Stafford is the safer start: Caleb Williams missed Weeks 3–4 (hamstring) and his Week 5 status isn't known yet.

Matthew Stafford also projects higher: 19.8 vs 16.9 for Caleb Williams if he plays.

QB · LAR

Matthew Stafford

19.8 pts projected · range 9.0–31.0
QB · CHI · Status unknown

Caleb Williams

16.9 pts projected if he plays · range 6.0–28.0
Missed Weeks 3–4 (hamstring) — Week 5 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 7)

Compare them in the start/sit tool

2026 season · the games so far

2026 head-to-head so far

Through Week 4, Caleb Williams has out-scored Matthew Stafford by 7.1 PPR points per game, 22.5 to 15.4 (Matthew Stafford 4 games, Caleb Williams 2 games).

Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of Oct 5, 2026

Caleb Williams · Week 4 injury report Out — hamstring, did not practice

Matthew Stafford vs Caleb Williams, 2026 regular season through Week 4
Matthew Stafford	Metric	Caleb Williams
4	Games	2
15.4	PPR points per game	22.5
297.3	Pass yards per game	203.5
2.8	Carries per game	7.5
96%	Snap share	93%
19.2	PPR points per game, last 3 games	22.5

Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.

Game by game: Matthew Stafford · Caleb Williams

Draft-day record · July 2026

The July 2026 draft-day read

This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools

QB · LAR · ADP 105.5 Matthew Stafford QB13 · ADP 105.5 QB · CHI · ADP 109.9 Caleb Williams QB14 · ADP 109.9

Metric by metric

The tale of the tape

Matthew Stafford vs Caleb Williams — cited metrics
Matthew Stafford	Metric	Caleb Williams
105.5 (QB13)	Draft ADP (July 2026)	109.9 (QB14)
109	Overall ADP rank (July 2026)	114
20.6	Fantasy points / game	18.7
+7.5	Points over expected (FPOE)	+4.6
103	Sleeper search rank (July 2026)	15

Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.

xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.

Chalk

The consensus read

July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Matthew Stafford at ADP 105.5, Caleb Williams at ADP 109.9. On 2025 production it is 20.6 vs 18.7 half-PPR points per game.

Sharp

What had to be true

This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.

Checkpoint · Caleb Williams

Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)

+4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026

Strong move if you believed

Caleb Williams's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline

Poor move if instead

Caleb Williams's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint · Matthew Stafford

Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)

+7.5 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026

Strong move if you believed

Matthew Stafford's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance

Poor move if instead

Matthew Stafford's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline

Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).

FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.