Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Mike Evans or Rome Odunze?
Rome Odunze was the stronger 2025 producer — 10.3 vs 8.7 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 48.5 vs 54.2). That gap was the draft-day case for Rome Odunze.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Mike Evans or Rome Odunze?
Coin flip: Rome Odunze and Mike Evans are 0.1 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Rome Odunze has the higher floor (2.8 vs 2.7) and CHI is implied for more points (23.3 vs SF's 21.5).
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WR · CHI
Rome Odunze
9.2 pts projected · range 2.8–18.1
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WR · SF
Mike Evans
9.1 pts projected · range 2.7–17.9
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Mike Evans has out-scored Rome Odunze by 3.3 PPR points per game, 12.6 to 9.3 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| Mike Evans | Metric | Rome Odunze |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 12.6 | PPR points per game | 9.3 |
| 22% | Target share | 17% |
| 6.0 | Targets per game | 5.0 |
| 55% | Snap share | 77% |
| 11.1 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 10.0 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Mike Evans · Rome Odunze
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Mike Evans | Metric | Rome Odunze |
|---|---|---|
| 48.5 (WR26) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 54.2 (WR27) |
| 52 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 55 |
| 8.7 | Fantasy points / game | 10.3 |
| 24.3% | Target share | — |
| 20.3% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 47 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 48 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Mike Evans at ADP 48.5, Rome Odunze at ADP 54.2. On 2025 production it is 8.7 vs 10.3 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Mike Evans
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.3% last 3 vs 24.3% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Mike Evans's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
Mike Evans's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.