Mike Evans: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Mike Evans's 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a WR26 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Mike Evans
WR · San Francisco 49ers
This week · Week 5
Projected 9.1 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 2.7 to 17.9.
at SEA · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Forecast 9.1 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.5, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason WR27 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Vegas: SF implied 21.5 vs 26.3 in his games | −0.5 | 9.0 |
| Matchup: SEA 2nd toughest vs WR: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 9.0 |
| Availability: KhaDarel Hodge ruled out: his share +3% | +0.1 | 9.1 |
| Projection | 9.1 | 9.1 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: SF is implied for 21.5 points, 17th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Hurts: SEA ranks 31st of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to WRs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast N 7 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 10.5 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 41.8 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR26 of 145 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- tgt share
- 21.5% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 50.3 (12.6/g) · Std 33.3 (8.3/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 LAR 13.9, Week 2 MIA 6.9, Week 3 ARI 10.9, Week 4 DEN 10.1. Bye in Week 8.
This week · SF at SEA
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 9.1
- PPR
- 11.2
- Standard
- 7.0
Range 2.7–17.9
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 6.6 tgt · 4.20 rec · 54 yds · 0.26 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 21% of SF's targets × 33.0 a game
- 6.4 targets
- Efficiency
- 63% catch · 8.2 yds/target
- 4.1 rec · 53 yds
- Scoring chances
- 5.29 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.25 TD
- Vegas
- SF implied 21.5 vs 26.3 in his games (×0.82)
- −10% volume, −33% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason WR27 in FFC ADP → 9.9 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- +0.3 half-PPR pts (8.8 → 9.1)
- Vacated share
- KhaDarel Hodge ruled out
- +3% share
- Context (not in projection)
- SEA allows 0.78× league WR points (rank 31 of 32)
| Opponent | at SEASF on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| Implied total | 21.5SF · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: N 7 mph |
| SEA vs WR | Allows the 31st-most fantasy points to WRs0.78× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 19% of SF's targets inside the 204 of 21, through Week 4 · 2 inside the 10 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | WR24 of 100 · 9.8 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 8 |
Trade value 5 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 71 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 12.6
- WR rank
- WR26
- of 145 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- SF
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 33.3 | 8.3 |
| Half-PPR | 41.8 | 10.4 |
| PPR | 50.3 | 12.6 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | DEN | 12.6 | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 28% | 59% | Score this game |
| 3 | ARI | 12.4 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 23% | 33% | Score this game |
| 2 | MIA | 8.4 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 14% | 54% | Score this game |
| 1 | LAR | 16.9 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 21% | 75% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 49% | 55% | −7 |
| Targets per game | 5.7 | 6.0 | −0.3 |
| Target share | 22% | 22% | 0 |
| Air-yards share | 35% | 35% | −1 |
| PPR points per game | 11.1 | 12.6 | −1.4 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 48.5 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 52 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | -2.8 | nflverse |
| Target share | 24.3% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 20.3% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 47 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Mike Evans was drafted as the WR26 — ADP 48.5 — in July 2026. His 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 48.5
- Overall ADP rank 52
- Sleeper search rank 47
- Fantasy points / game 8.7
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
20.3% last 3 vs 24.3% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Mike Evans's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Mike Evans's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
-2.8 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Mike Evans's underperformance was bad luck — the usage converts going forward
Poor pick if instead
Mike Evans keeps leaving points on the field relative to his usage
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
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