Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Rashee Rice or Garrett Wilson?
Rashee Rice was the stronger 2025 producer — 15.5 vs 11.6 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 26.7 vs 29.4). That gap was the draft-day case for Rashee Rice.
This week's projections are in the Week 6 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 6: start Rashee Rice or Garrett Wilson?
Coin flip: Garrett Wilson and Rashee Rice are 0.4 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Garrett Wilson has the higher floor (5.4 vs 5.0) and KC is implied for more points (25.5 vs NYJ's 18.5).
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WR · NYJ
Garrett Wilson
11.8 pts projected · range 5.4–20.7
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WR · KC
Rashee Rice
11.4 pts projected · range 5.0–20.2
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 5, Garrett Wilson has out-scored Rashee Rice by 4.6 PPR points per game, 17.3 to 12.7 (Rashee Rice 3 games, Garrett Wilson 5 games).
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 10 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
| Rashee Rice | Metric | Garrett Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 5 |
| 12.7 | PPR points per game | 17.3 |
| 20% | Target share | 30% |
| 5.7 | Targets per game | 8.4 |
| 80% | Snap share | 89% |
| 12.7 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 18.6 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Rashee Rice · Garrett Wilson
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Rashee Rice | Metric | Garrett Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| 26.7 (WR14) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 29.4 (WR15) |
| 28 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 30 |
| 15.5 | Fantasy points / game | 11.6 |
| 29.0% | Target share | — |
| 33.9% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 33 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 38 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Rashee Rice at ADP 26.7, Garrett Wilson at ADP 29.4. On 2025 production it is 15.5 vs 11.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Rashee Rice
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
33.9% last 3 vs 29.0% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Rashee Rice's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Rashee Rice's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.