Garrett Wilson: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Week 9 call · Half-PPR
Start him. Projected 10.8 half-PPR, the WR17 this week, outdoors in light wind. No injury designation yet (the Week 9 report starts Wed, Nov 4).
Start, flex or sitOur one-line weekly call, for a 12-team league: start a top-12 QB, top-24 RB or WR, or top-12 TE this week; flex the next ones who would still fill a flex spot; sit the rest.More in the glossary : a 12-team league's starters and flex spots, from this week's projections.
Garrett Wilson
WR · New York Jets
This week · Week 9
Projected 10.8 half-PPR points in Week 9, with a likely range of 4.4 to 19.6.Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary ProjectionOur estimate of a player’s fantasy points this week, built from his share of his team’s targets, carries and passes, how much his team is expected to score, and his preseason value. It is a middle outcome, not a promise.More in the glossary
at KC · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary
Forecast 10.8 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.4, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 8 games, with his preseason WR14 ADP at 20% weight, at his usual line | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| Vegas: NYJ implied 18.3 vs 21.1 in his games | −0.4 | 10.8 |
| Matchup: KC 2nd toughest vs WR: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 10.8 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 10.8 |
| Projection | 10.8 | 10.8 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary Context: NYJ is implied for 18.3 points, 27th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary No effect this week: KC is the 2nd toughest of 32 defenses against WRs (the 1st toughest allows the fewest fantasy points). It is context, not in the projection: with a Vegas line, the model adds nothing for the matchup.
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast NW 7 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 8
- PPG · points per gameFantasy points divided by games played, so a player is not marked down for the weeks he sat out.More in the glossary
- 11.5 half-PPR points a game over 8 games, 92.2 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR20 of 175 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 8 games with a stat line through Week 8.
- 27.5% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 113.7 (14.2/g) · Std 70.7 (8.8/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 TEN 10.9, Week 2 GB 14.2, Week 3 DET 21.7, Week 4 CHI 4.2, Week 5 CLE 19.9, Week 6 NE 6.4, Week 7 MIA 3.6, Week 8 LV 11.3. Bye in Week 13.
This week · NYJ at KC
Week 9 projection
- Half-PPREvery catch is worth half a point. It is the middle ground between PPR and standard scoring, where catches score nothing on their own.More in the glossary
- 10.8
- PPR · point per receptionEvery catch is worth 1 point on top of the yards and touchdowns. It lifts pass-catching running backs, slot receivers and tight ends.More in the glossary
- 13.4
- StandardScoring where a catch is worth nothing on its own: only yards and touchdowns count. It favours running backs who score near the goal line over receivers who catch short passes.More in the glossary
- 8.2
Floor and ceilingThe spread of likely scores around a projection. The floor is a bad week (only 1 in 10 past weeks like it landed lower) and the ceiling a big one (only 1 in 10 landed higher).More in the glossary 4.4–19.6
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 8.1 tgt · 5.11 rec · 64 yds · 0.31 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 25% of NYJ's targets × 33.4 a game
- 7.9 targets
- Efficiency
- 63% catch · 7.9 yds/target
- 5.0 rec · 63 yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.95 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.30 TD
- Vegas
- NYJ implied 18.3 vs 21.1 in his games (×0.86)
- −7% volume, −25% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason WR14 in FFC ADP → 11.8 PPG, 20% weight at 8 games
- +0.2 half-PPR pts (10.6 → 10.8)
- Context (not in projection)
- KC allows 0.83× league WR points (2nd toughest of 32)
| Opponent | at KCNYJ on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total · implied team totalHow many points Vegas expects one team to score, worked out from the game total and the point spread. Higher totals mean more scoring chances for that offense.More in the glossary | 18.3NYJ · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: NW 7 mph |
| Matchup (DvP) · defense vs positionHow many fantasy points this week’s opponent has allowed to a position, ranked 1 to 32. “3rd softest” allows the 3rd-most, “1st toughest” the fewest. Our projections treat it as context, because the Vegas line already prices the matchup in.More in the glossary | Allows the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to WRs0.83× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zoneThe last 20 yards before the end zone. Most touchdowns start there, so targets and carries inside the 20 point to touchdown chances.More in the glossary | 20% of NYJ's targets inside the 206 of 30, through Week 8 · 2 inside the 10 · 1 TD |
| ROS · rest of seasonEverything left on the schedule from this week on. Rest-of-season value is what matters for trades and pickups, where one week is noise.More in the glossary | WR17 of 109 · 11.2 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 8 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 13 |
Trade value 13 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 9–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 49 of 86 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 8, consensus line as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:20 PM ET, no Week 9 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market priorWhere drafters valued a player before the season (his preseason ADP), blended into our projections so a few early games cannot swing his number too far.More in the glossary : preseason ADP · average draft positionWhere a player went on average in fantasy drafts: an ADP of 4.2 means he was usually the fourth player taken. Ours is preseason ADP, frozen once drafts end.More in the glossary from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 14.2
- WR rank
- WR20
- of 175 with 2+ games
- Games
- 8
- NYJ
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 70.7 | 8.8 |
| Half-PPR | 92.2 | 11.5 |
| PPR | 113.7 | 14.2 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR ptsHalf · Std | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | LV | 14.3 11.3 · 8.3 | 12 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 39% | 81% | Score this game |
| 7 | MIA | 4.6 3.6 · 2.6 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 10% | 85% | Score this game |
| 6 | NE | 8.4 6.4 · 4.4 | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 21% | 98% | Score this game |
| 5 | CLE | 23.4 19.9 · 16.4 | 11 | 7 | 104 | 1 | 38% | 93% | Score this game |
| 4 | CHI | 5.7 4.2 · 2.7 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 27% | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | DET | 26.7 21.7 · 16.7 | 13 | 10 | 107 | 1 | 36% | 94% | Score this game |
| 2 | GB | 16.7 14.2 · 11.7 | 7 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 19% | 88% | Score this game |
| 1 | TEN | 13.9 10.9 · 7.9 | 7 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 30% | 75% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game; the smaller line under it is the same game in Half-PPR, then Standard (half a point, and a point, less per catch). "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 6–8) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 88% | 89% | −1 |
| Targets per game | 7.0 | 7.9 | −0.9 |
| Target share | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Air-yards share | 24% | 35% | −11 |
| PPR points per game | 9.1 | 14.2 | −5.1 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Preseason read (July 2026)The draft-day verdict, 2025 stats, Chalk & Sharp and July ADP, as published.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Garrett Wilson averaged 11.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a WR15 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 9 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 29.4 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 30 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 11.6 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +0.2 | nflverse |
| Target share | 35.4% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 33.3% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 38 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Garrett Wilson was drafted as the WR15 — ADP 29.4 — in July 2026. His 11.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 29.4
- Overall ADP rank 30
- Sleeper search rank 38
- Fantasy points / game 11.6
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
33.3% last 3 vs 35.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Garrett Wilson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Garrett Wilson's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+0.2 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: within half a point a game of expectation, so his usage explains his scoring and this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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