Garrett Wilson: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Garrett Wilson averaged 11.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a WR15 draft slot is worth, so the price reads roughly in line with the production. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 29.4 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 30 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 11.6 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +0.2 | nflverse |
| Target share | 35.4% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 33.3% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 38 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts Garrett Wilson as the WR15 (ADP 29.4). His 11.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- adp 29.4
- adp_rank 30
- search_rank 38
- ppg 11.6
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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Garrett Wilson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
33.3% last 3 vs 35.4% season (2025)
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Garrett Wilson's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.2 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
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Garrett Wilson's target share is fading from the season baseline
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
33.3% last 3 vs 35.4% season (2025)
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Garrett Wilson's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+0.2 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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