Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
TreVeyon Henderson or Jaylen Warren?
TreVeyon Henderson and Jaylen Warren are a near-tie on 2025 production (11.1 vs 12.3 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start TreVeyon Henderson or Jaylen Warren?
Start Jaylen Warren over TreVeyon Henderson (4.0 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 68% of the time.
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RB · PIT
Jaylen Warren
13.2 pts projected · range 6.0–22.2
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RB · NE
TreVeyon Henderson
9.2 pts projected · range 2.0–18.1
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Jaylen Warren has out-scored TreVeyon Henderson by 6.8 PPR points per game, 14.1 to 7.2 (TreVeyon Henderson 3 games, Jaylen Warren 4 games).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| TreVeyon Henderson | Metric | Jaylen Warren |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 4 |
| 7.2 | PPR points per game | 14.1 |
| 12.7 | Carries per game | 13.8 |
| 3% | Target share | 14% |
| 45% | Snap share | 74% |
| 7.2 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 15.3 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: TreVeyon Henderson · Jaylen Warren
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| TreVeyon Henderson | Metric | Jaylen Warren |
|---|---|---|
| 59.8 (RB25) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 67.9 (RB26) |
| 60 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 69 |
| 11.1 | Fantasy points / game | 12.3 |
| 8.4% | Target share | — |
| 0.8% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 37 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 52 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — TreVeyon Henderson at ADP 59.8, Jaylen Warren at ADP 67.9. On 2025 production it is 11.1 vs 12.3 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · TreVeyon Henderson
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
0.8% last 3 vs 8.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
TreVeyon Henderson's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
TreVeyon Henderson's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.