Jaylen Warren: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Week 9 call · Half-PPR
Sit him. PIT is on bye in Week 9.
Start, flex or sitOur one-line weekly call, for a 12-team league: start a top-12 QB, top-24 RB or WR, or top-12 TE this week; flex the next ones who would still fill a flex spot; sit the rest.More in the glossary : a 12-team league's starters and flex spots, from this week's projections.
Jaylen Warren
RB · Pittsburgh Steelers
This week · Week 9
On bye in Week 9. Back in Week 10 at CIN, Sun 8:20 PM ET.
Season so far · through Week 8
- PPG · points per gameFantasy points divided by games played, so a player is not marked down for the weeks he sat out.More in the glossary
- 16.0 half-PPR points a game over 8 games, 128.3 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB10 of 112 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 8 games with a stat line through Week 8.
- CarriesRunning plays where the player takes the handoff or keeps the ball. More carries mean more chances at yards and touchdowns, above all near the goal line.More in the glossary
- 14.9 carries per team game this season.
PPR 140.8 (17.6/g) · Std 115.8 (14.5/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 ATL 7.8, Week 2 NE 8.7, Week 3 CIN 19.1, Week 4 CLE 14.1, Week 5 IND 33.8, Week 6 TB 8.8, Week 7 NO 15.2, Week 8 CLE 20.8.
This week · PIT on bye
Week 9
On bye in Week 9. Back in Week 10 at CIN, Sun 8:20 PM ET.
| ROS · rest of seasonEverything left on the schedule from this week on. Rest-of-season value is what matters for trades and pickups, where one week is noise.More in the glossary | RB13 of 69 · 13.5 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 8 games left through Week 17 |
|---|
Trade value 31 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 9–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 20 of 86 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Market priorWhere drafters valued a player before the season (his preseason ADP), blended into our projections so a few early games cannot swing his number too far.More in the glossary : preseason ADP · average draft positionWhere a player went on average in fantasy drafts: an ADP of 4.2 means he was usually the fourth player taken. Ours is preseason ADP, frozen once drafts end.More in the glossary from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 17.6
- RB rank
- RB10
- of 112 with 2+ games
- Games
- 8
- PIT
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 115.8 | 14.5 |
| Half-PPR | 128.3 | 16.0 |
| PPR | 140.8 | 17.6 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR ptsHalf · Std | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CLE | 21.3 20.8 · 20.3 | 17 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 58% | Score this game |
| 7 | NO | 16.7 15.2 · 13.7 | 18 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 62% | Score this game |
| 6 | TB | 9.8 8.8 · 7.8 | 14 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 75% | Score this game |
| 5 | IND | 36.8 33.8 · 30.8 | 15 | 101 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 87% | Score this game |
| 4 | CLE | 15.6 14.1 · 12.6 | 17 | 93 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 97% | Score this game |
| 3 | CIN | 20.6 19.1 · 17.6 | 17 | 127 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 90% | Score this game |
| 2 | NE | 9.7 8.7 · 7.7 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 71% | Score this game |
| 1 | ATL | 10.3 7.8 · 5.3 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 37% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game; the smaller line under it is the same game in Half-PPR, then Standard (half a point, and a point, less per catch). "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 6–8) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 65% | 72% | −7 |
| Carries per game | 16.3 | 14.9 | +1.4 |
| Targets per game | 3.3 | 4.5 | −1.2 |
| Target share | 11% | 13% | −2 |
| PPR points per game | 15.9 | 17.6 | −1.7 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Preseason read (July 2026)The draft-day verdict, 2025 stats, Chalk & Sharp and July ADP, as published.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
At 12.3 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Jaylen Warren outproduced what a RB26 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 67.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 69 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 12.3 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +2.5 | nflverse |
| Target share | 9.6% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 5.5% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 52 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Jaylen Warren was drafted as the RB26 — ADP 67.9 — in July 2026. His 12.3 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the RB starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 67.9
- Overall ADP rank 69
- Sleeper search rank 52
- Fantasy points / game 12.3
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
5.5% last 3 vs 9.6% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Jaylen Warren's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Jaylen Warren's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+2.5 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Jaylen Warren's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Jaylen Warren's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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