Jaylen Warren: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 12.3 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Jaylen Warren outproduced what a RB26 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Jaylen Warren
RB · Pittsburgh Steelers
This week · Week 5
Projected 13.2 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 6.0 to 22.1.
vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 13.2 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 0.9, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason RB27 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| Vegas: PIT implied 23.3 vs 20.3 in his games | +0.9 | 13.2 |
| Matchup: IND 11th softest vs RB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 13.2 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 13.2 |
| Projection | 13.2 | 13.2 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: PIT is implied for 23.3 points, 13th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Context: IND ranks 11th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to RBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast SE 7 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 12.4 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 49.7 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB16 of 91 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- car/g
- 13.8 carries per team game this season.
PPR 56.2 (14.1/g) · Std 43.2 (10.8/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 ATL 7.8, Week 2 NE 8.7, Week 3 CIN 19.1, Week 4 CLE 14.1. Bye in Week 9.
This week · PIT vs IND
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 13.2
- PPR
- 14.5
- Standard
- 11.9
Range 6.0–22.1
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 14.3 car · 71 rush yds · 2.63 rec · 23 rec yds · 0.43 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 58% of PIT's carries × 25.6 a game · 12% of PIT's targets × 31.4 a game
- 15.7 carries · 3.9 targets
- Efficiency
- 74% catch · 6.3 yds/target · 4.9 yds/carry
- 2.9 rec · 103 yds
- Scoring chances
- 1.57 TD per 100 carries, 3.93 per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.47 TD
- Vegas
- PIT implied 23.3 vs 20.3 in his games (×1.15)
- +7% volume, +31% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason RB27 in FFC ADP → 10.8 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- −1.3 half-PPR pts (14.4 → 13.2)
- Context (not in projection)
- IND allows 1.06× league RB points (rank 11 of 32)
| Opponent | vs INDPIT at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 23.3PIT · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: SE 7 mph |
| IND vs RB | Allows the 11th-most fantasy points to RBs1.06× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 38% of PIT's carries inside the 203 of 8, through Week 4 |
| Rest of season | RB17 of 58 · 11.9 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 9 |
Trade value 23 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 34 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Mon, Oct 5, 7:31 AM ET, no Week 5 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 14.1
- RB rank
- RB16
- of 91 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- PIT
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 43.2 | 10.8 |
| Half-PPR | 49.7 | 12.4 |
| PPR | 56.2 | 14.1 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CLE | 15.6 | 17 | 93 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 97% | Score this game |
| 3 | CIN | 20.6 | 17 | 127 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 90% | Score this game |
| 2 | NE | 9.7 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 71% | Score this game |
| 1 | ATL | 10.3 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 37% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 86% | 74% | +12 |
| Carries per game | 15.0 | 13.8 | +1.3 |
| Targets per game | 4.7 | 5.0 | −0.3 |
| Target share | 13% | 14% | −1 |
| PPR points per game | 15.3 | 14.1 | +1.3 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 67.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 69 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 12.3 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +2.5 | nflverse |
| Target share | 9.6% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 5.5% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 52 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Jaylen Warren was drafted as the RB26 — ADP 67.9 — in July 2026. His 12.3 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the RB starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 67.9
- Overall ADP rank 69
- Sleeper search rank 52
- Fantasy points / game 12.3
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
5.5% last 3 vs 9.6% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Jaylen Warren's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Jaylen Warren's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+2.5 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Jaylen Warren's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Jaylen Warren's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
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