Aaron Jones: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Aaron Jones averaged 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a RB34 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Aaron Jones
RB · Minnesota Vikings
- Week 5 injury reportInjury report — not injury related: resting player, limited in practice
This week · Week 5
Projected 10.6 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 3.4 to 19.6.
at NO · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 10.6 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.2, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason RB34 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| Vegas: MIN implied 22.3 vs 22.9 in his games | −0.2 | 10.6 |
| Matchup: NO 1st softest vs RB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 10.6 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 10.6 |
| Projection | 10.6 | 10.6 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: MIN is implied for 22.3 points, tied for 15th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: NO ranks 1st of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to RBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: played indoors, so weather is not a factor.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 11.8 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 47.0 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB18 of 91 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- car/g
- 18.0 carries per team game this season.
PPR 51.5 (12.9/g) · Std 42.5 (10.6/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 GB 10.0, Week 2 CHI 10.5, Week 3 TB 11.7, Week 4 MIA 14.8. Bye in Week 6.
This week · MIN at NO
Week 5 projection
Week 5 injury report Injury report — not injury related: resting player, limited in practice
- Half‑PPR
- 10.6
- PPR
- 11.9
- Standard
- 9.4
Range 3.4–19.6
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 13.4 car · 56 rush yds · 2.51 rec · 19 rec yds · 0.33 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 54% of MIN's carries × 27.1 a game · 13% of MIN's targets × 30.4 a game
- 14.8 carries · 4.0 targets
- Efficiency
- 71% catch · 5.2 yds/target · 4.2 yds/carry
- 2.8 rec · 83 yds
- Scoring chances
- 1.80 TD per 100 carries, 3.54 per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.36 TD
- Vegas
- MIN implied 22.3 vs 22.9 in his games (×0.97)
- −1% volume, −6% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason RB34 in FFC ADP → 8.5 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- −1.1 half-PPR pts (11.7 → 10.6)
- Context (not in projection)
- NO allows 1.31× league RB points (rank 1 of 32)
| Opponent | at NOMIN on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 22.3MIN · consensus line |
| NO vs RB | Allows the most fantasy points to RBs1.31× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 60% of MIN's carries inside the 206 of 10, through Week 4 · 1 inside the 5 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | RB25 of 58 · 10.2 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 6 |
Trade value 8 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 59 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 12.9
- RB rank
- RB18
- of 91 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- MIN
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 42.5 | 10.6 |
| Half-PPR | 47.0 | 11.8 |
| PPR | 51.5 | 12.9 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MIA | 16.8 | 20 | 94 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 73% | Score this game |
| 3 | TB | 14.2 | 17 | 58 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 80% | Score this game |
| 2 | CHI | 10.5 | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81% | Score this game |
| 1 | GB | 10.0 | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 78% | 70% | +8 |
| Carries per game | 20.0 | 18.0 | +2.0 |
| Targets per game | 4.7 | 3.8 | +0.9 |
| Target share | 16% | 13% | +3 |
| PPR points per game | 13.8 | 12.9 | +1.0 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 97.0 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 99 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 8.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | -0.9 | nflverse |
| Target share | 14.1% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 18.0% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 85 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Aaron Jones was drafted as the RB34 — ADP 97 — in July 2026. His 8.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sits below the RB starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- ADP 97.0
- Overall ADP rank 99
- Sleeper search rank 85
- Fantasy points / game 8.7
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
18.0% last 3 vs 14.1% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Aaron Jones's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor pick if instead
Aaron Jones's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
-0.9 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Aaron Jones's underperformance was bad luck — the usage converts going forward
Poor pick if instead
Aaron Jones keeps leaving points on the field relative to his usage
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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