Alec Pierce: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 10.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Alec Pierce outproduced what a WR29 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Alec Pierce
WR · Indianapolis Colts
- Week 6 statusInjured reserve
This week · Week 6
vs TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ET
On injured reserve (IND, as of the Week 5 roster), so there is no Week 6 projection.
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 4.9 half-PPR points a game over 2 games, 9.7 in all.
- PPR rank
- WR81 of 154 WRs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 2 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- tgt share
- 4.8% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 12.2 (6.1/g) · Std 7.2 (3.6/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 BAL 8.1, Week 2 KC 1.6, Week 3 did not play, Week 4 did not play, Week 5 did not play. Bye in Week 13.
This week · IND vs TEN
Week 6
Week 6 status Injured reserve
On injured reserve (IND, as of the Week 5 roster), so there is no Week 6 projection.
| Opponent | vs TENIND at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 25.3IND · consensus line |
| Rest of season | WR36 of 103 · 8.6 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 10 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 13 · this week not counted: injured reserve |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 6.1
- WR rank
- WR81
- of 154 with 2+ games
- Games
- 2
- IND
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 7.2 | 3.6 |
| Half-PPR | 9.7 | 4.8 |
| PPR | 12.2 | 6.1 |
WR rank is by PPR points per game among WRs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PIT | Did not play | |||||||
| 4 | WAS | Did not play | |||||||
| 3 | HOU | Did not play | |||||||
| 2 | KC | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 26% | Score this game |
| 1 | BAL | 10.1 | 6 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 21% | 59% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wks 1–2) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 43% |
| Targets per game | 3.5 |
| Target share | 12% |
| Air-yards share | 29% |
| PPR points per game | 6.1 |
2 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 56.8 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 58 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 10.7 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.5 | nflverse |
| Target share | 17.6% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 16.5% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 67 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Alec Pierce was drafted as the WR29 — ADP 56.8 — in July 2026. His 10.7 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 56.8
- Overall ADP rank 58
- Sleeper search rank 67
- Fantasy points / game 10.7
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
16.5% last 3 vs 17.6% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Alec Pierce's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Alec Pierce's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.5 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Alec Pierce's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Alec Pierce's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
Everything for Week 6, on one page.
The top of every weekly board on one page: Vegas implied totals, wind, DST and kicker streamers, waiver risers, injuries, soft matchups and byes.
Open the Week 6 cheat sheet