Amon-Ra St. Brown: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 15.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a WR4 draft slot is worth, so the price reads roughly in line with the production. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 8.4 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 8 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 15.6 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +2.0 | nflverse |
| Target share | 31.7% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 34.6% | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 11 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts Amon-Ra St. Brown as the WR4 (ADP 8.4). His 15.6 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the WR starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- adp 8.4
- adp_rank 8
- search_rank 11
- ppg 15.6
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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Amon-Ra St. Brown's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
34.6% last 3 vs 31.7% season (2025)
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Amon-Ra St. Brown's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+2.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
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Amon-Ra St. Brown's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
34.6% last 3 vs 31.7% season (2025)
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Amon-Ra St. Brown's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+2.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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This page is a league-average read. The AI assistant weighs Amon-Ra St. Brown against your scoring, your roster build, and who is still on the board when your pick comes up.
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