Derrick Henry stats & 2026 fantasy outlook
Through Week 5 of 2026, Derrick Henry has 90.8 PPR points in 4 games: 22.7 per game, RB4 of 96 in PPR points per game.
Derrick Henry
RB · Baltimore Ravens
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 21.8 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 87.3 in all.
- PPR rank
- RB4 of 96 RBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- car/g
- 22.3 carries per team game this season.
PPR 90.8 (22.7/g) · Std 83.8 (21.0/g)
This week · Week 6
Projected 14.5 half-PPR points in Week 6, with a likely range of 7.3 to 23.4.
at CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 14.5 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 1.6, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason RB6 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 16.1 | 16.1 |
| Vegas: BAL implied 23.0 vs 27.1 in his games | −1.6 | 14.5 |
| Matchup: CLE 8th toughest vs RB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 14.5 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 14.5 |
| Projection | 14.5 | 14.5 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: BAL is implied for 23.0 points, 14th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Hurts: CLE ranks 25th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to RBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: an outdoor game with no kickoff-hour forecast yet.
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 IND 34.8, Week 2 NO 16.2, Week 3 DAL 21.4, Week 4 TEN 14.9, Week 5 not played yet. Bye in Week 13.
2026 season · the games so far
Derrick Henry 2026 stats so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 10 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 22.7
- RB rank
- RB4
- of 96 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- BAL
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 83.8 | 20.9 |
| Half-PPR | 87.3 | 21.8 |
| PPR | 90.8 | 22.7 |
RB rank is by PPR points per game among RBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ATL | Not played yet | |||||||||
| 4 | TEN | 15.9 | 23 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 62% | Score this game |
| 3 | DAL | 21.9 | 26 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 67% | Score this game |
| 2 | NO | 17.7 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 53% | Score this game |
| 1 | IND | 35.3 | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 54% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Carries per game | 21.7 | 22.3 | −0.6 |
| Targets per game | 2.0 | 1.8 | +0.3 |
| Target share | 7% | 7% | +1 |
| PPR points per game | 18.5 | 22.7 | −4.2 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
This week · BAL at CLE
Week 6 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 14.5
- PPR
- 15.3
- Standard
- 13.7
Range 7.3–23.4
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 17.6 car · 75 rush yds · 1.67 rec · 11 rec yds · 0.85 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 61% of BAL's carries × 27.6 a game · 6% of BAL's targets × 31.2 a game
- 16.1 carries · 1.8 targets
- Efficiency
- 82% catch · 5.6 yds/target · 4.3 yds/carry
- 1.5 rec · 80 yds
- Scoring chances
- 5.68 TD per 100 carries, 2.75 per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.78 TD
- Vegas
- BAL implied 23.0 vs 27.1 in his games (×0.85)
- −8% volume, −28% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason RB6 in FFC ADP → 16.8 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- +1.2 half-PPR pts (13.3 → 14.5)
- Context (not in projection)
- CLE allows 0.90× league RB points (rank 25 of 32)
| Opponent | at CLEBAL on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 23.0BAL · consensus line |
| CLE vs RB | Allows the 25th-most fantasy points to RBs0.90× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 82% of BAL's carries inside the 2023 of 28, through Week 5 · 11 inside the 5 · 6 TD |
| Rest of season | RB5 of 59 · 16.3 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 13 |
Trade value 62 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 8 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 7:41 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Derrick Henry averaged 16.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a RB6 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production. His target share slipped over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 9.5 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 10 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 16.0 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +5.5 | nflverse |
| Target share | 4.9% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 2.0% | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +4.8pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 24 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Derrick Henry was drafted as the RB6 — ADP 9.5 — in July 2026. His 16.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the RB starter line, with targets fading late in that year.
- ADP 9.5
- Overall ADP rank 10
- Sleeper search rank 24
- Fantasy points / game 16.0
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
2.0% last 3 vs 4.9% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Derrick Henry's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor pick if instead
Derrick Henry's target share is fading from the season baseline
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+5.5 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Derrick Henry's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Derrick Henry's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+4.8pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Derrick Henry's snap share keeps climbing
Poor pick if instead
Derrick Henry's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
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