Baker Mayfield stats & 2026 fantasy outlook
Through Week 4 of 2026, Baker Mayfield has 35.1 PPR points in 3 games: 11.7 per game, QB29 of 39 in PPR points per game.
Baker Mayfield
QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 5 statusStatus unknown · Missed Week 4 (thumb) — Week 5 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 7)
- Week 4 injury reportOut — thumb, did not practice
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 11.7 half-PPR points a game over 3 games, 35.1 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB29 of 39 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 3 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- pass yds/g
- 205 passing yards a game this season, over 3 games.
PPR 35.1 (11.7/g) · Std 35.1 (11.7/g)
This week · Week 5
Projected 13.9 half-PPR points if he plays in Week 5, with a likely range of 3.1 to 25.1.
at DAL · Thu 8:15 PM ET
Forecast 13.9 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 1.2, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 3 games, with his preseason QB19 ADP at 40% weight, at his usual line | 15.1 | 15.1 |
| Vegas: TB implied 18.8 vs 22.8 in his games | −1.2 | 13.9 |
| Matchup: DAL 2nd softest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 13.9 |
| Availability: Status unknown: projected as if he plays | 0.0 | 13.9 |
| Projection | 13.9 | 13.9 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Hurts: TB is implied for 18.8 points, 28th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: DAL ranks 2nd of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to QBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: a retractable roof, treated as indoors.
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 CIN 11.6, Week 2 CLE 12.2, Week 3 MIN 11.3, Week 4 did not play. Bye in Week 10.
2026 season · the games so far
Baker Mayfield 2026 stats so far
Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of
Week 4 injury report Out — thumb, did not practice
- PPR pts / game
- 11.7
- QB rank
- QB29
- of 39 with 2+ games
- Games
- 3
- TB
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 35.1 | 11.7 |
| Half-PPR | 35.1 | 11.7 |
| PPR | 35.1 | 11.7 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GB | Did not play · Out (thumb) on the Week 4 injury report | ||||||||
| 3 | MIN | 11.3 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 94% | Score this game |
| 2 | CLE | 12.2 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 1 | CIN | 11.6 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 100% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet. "Did not play" means his team played but nflverse has no stat line for him, which is usually an injury or an inactive game day; the injury designation shows only for the week the latest report covers.
Usage trend
| Per game | Season (Wks 1–3) |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 98% |
| Carries per game | 3.7 |
| PPR points per game | 11.7 |
3 games so far, so there is no recent-vs-season split yet: it starts once he has played more than 3. Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
This week · TB at DAL
Week 5 projection
Week 5 status Status unknownMissed Week 4 (thumb) — Week 5 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 7)
- Half‑PPR
- 13.9
- PPR
- 13.9
- Standard
- 13.9
Range 3.1–25.1
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 34.6 att · 234 pass yds · 0.96 pass TD · 0.75 INT · 3.6 car · 18 rush yds · 0.13 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 96% of TB's pass attempts × 35.8 a game · 13% of TB's carries × 26.4 a game
- 31.3 attempts · 3.3 carries
- Efficiency
- 6.8 yds/attempt
- 212 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.23 TD per 100 attempts
- 0.98 TD
- Vegas
- TB implied 18.8 vs 22.8 in his games (×0.82)
- −9% volume, −32% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason QB19 in FFC ADP → 16.0 PPG, 40% weight at 3 games
- +1.3 half-PPR pts (12.6 → 13.9)
- Status
- Missed Week 4 (thumb) — Week 5 status not reported yet (first practice report Wed, Oct 7)
- not applied: projected as if he plays
- Context (not in projection)
- DAL allows 1.30× league QB points (rank 2 of 32)
| Opponent | at DALTB on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Thu 8:15 PM ET |
| Implied total | 18.8TB · consensus line |
| DAL vs QB | Allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to QBs1.30× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 33% of TB's carries inside the 205 of 15, through Week 4 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | QB22 of 38 · 15.6 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 10 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Mon, Oct 5, 7:31 AM ET, no Week 5 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Baker Mayfield averaged 16.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a QB18 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card above. The July 2026 draft-day read is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 135.1 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 140 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 16.0 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +3.2 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +2.9pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 64 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Baker Mayfield was drafted as the QB18 — ADP 135.1 — in July 2026. His 16.0 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- ADP 135.1
- Overall ADP rank 140
- Sleeper search rank 64
- Fantasy points / game 16.0
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+3.2 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Baker Mayfield's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Baker Mayfield's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+2.9pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 2.9-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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