Joe Burrow: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Joe Burrow's 16.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 sit below what a QB2 draft price usually buys — July 2026 drafters were paying for projection, not the previous season's line.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Joe Burrow
QB · Cincinnati Bengals
This week · Week 5
Projected 17.5 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 6.7 to 28.7.
at MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Forecast 17.5 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.5, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason QB2 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Vegas: CIN implied 24.5 vs 24.7 in his games | −0.5 | 17.5 |
| Matchup: MIA 7th softest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 17.5 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 17.5 |
| Projection | 17.5 | 17.5 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: CIN is implied for 24.5 points, tied for 5th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: MIA ranks 7th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to QBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: kickoff-hour forecast SE 10 mph, under the 15 mph wind line.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 19.2 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 76.6 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB11 of 40 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- pass yds/g
- 293 passing yards a game this season, over 4 games.
PPR 76.6 (19.2/g) · Std 76.6 (19.2/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 TB 14.2, Week 2 HOU 16.2, Week 3 PIT 22.6, Week 4 JAX 23.7. Bye in Week 6.
This week · CIN at MIA
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 17.5
- PPR
- 17.5
- Standard
- 17.5
Range 6.7–28.7
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 35.3 att · 257 pass yds · 1.63 pass TD · 0.73 INT · 3.3 car · 14 rush yds · 0.19 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 96% of CIN's pass attempts × 32.9 a game · 12% of CIN's carries × 25.3 a game
- 32.2 attempts · 3.0 carries
- Efficiency
- 7.3 yds/attempt
- 235 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 4.71 TD per 100 attempts
- 1.66 TD
- Vegas
- CIN implied 24.5 vs 24.7 in his games (×0.99)
- −0% volume, −2% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason QB2 in FFC ADP → 20.7 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- +1.5 half-PPR pts (16.0 → 17.5)
- Context (not in projection)
- MIA allows 1.05× league QB points (rank 7 of 32)
| Opponent | at MIACIN on the road |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| Implied total | 24.5CIN · consensus line |
| Wind | No wind flagKickoff-hour forecast: SE 10 mph |
| MIA vs QB | Allows the 7th-most fantasy points to QBs1.05× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 33% of CIN's carries inside the 205 of 15, through Week 4 · 1 inside the 5 · 1 TD |
| Rest of season | QB3 of 39 · 18.8 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 6 |
Trade value 17 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 43 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Thu, Oct 8, 8:25 PM ET, Week 5 injury report. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 19.2
- QB rank
- QB11
- of 40 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- CIN
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 76.6 | 19.2 |
| Half-PPR | 76.6 | 19.2 |
| PPR | 76.6 | 19.2 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | JAX | 23.7 | 428 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | PIT | 22.6 | 282 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 2 | HOU | 16.2 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 1 | TB | 14.2 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 100% | 100% | 0 |
| Carries per game | 2.0 | 2.8 | −0.8 |
| PPR points per game | 20.8 | 19.2 | +1.7 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 44.8 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 46 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 16.8 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +4.6 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +2.9pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 11 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Joe Burrow was drafted as the QB2 — ADP 44.8 — in July 2026. His 16.8 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- ADP 44.8
- Overall ADP rank 46
- Sleeper search rank 11
- Fantasy points / game 16.8
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+4.6 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Joe Burrow's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Joe Burrow's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+2.9pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 2.9-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
Everything for Week 5, on one page.
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