Trevor Lawrence: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
At 19.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025, Trevor Lawrence outproduced what a QB7 draft slot usually returns — that was the draft-day value case in July 2026.
This week's projection is in the Week 6 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Trevor Lawrence
QB · Jacksonville Jaguars
This week · Week 6
Projected 16.5 half-PPR points in Week 6, with a likely range of 5.6 to 27.6.
vs HOU · Sun 9:30 AM ET
Forecast 16.5 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line takes away 0.5, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 5 games, with his preseason QB11 ADP at 29% weight, at his usual line | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| Vegas: JAX implied 23.3 vs 24.1 in his games | −0.5 | 16.5 |
| Matchup: HOU 13th toughest vs QB: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 16.5 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 16.5 |
| Projection | 16.5 | 16.5 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Context: JAX is implied for 23.3 points, tied for 11th-highest of 28 teams with a line this week.
- Context: HOU ranks 20th of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to QBs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Hurts: kickoff-hour forecast of wind NE 15 mph, past the wind line where deep passing falls off (context, not in the projection).
Season so far · through Week 5
- Half-PPR/g
- 17.4 half-PPR points a game over 5 games, 86.9 in all.
- PPR rank
- QB15 of 41 QBs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 5 games with a stat line through Week 5.
- pass yds/g
- 235 passing yards a game this season, over 5 games.
PPR 86.9 (17.4/g) · Std 86.9 (17.4/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 CLE 26.1, Week 2 DEN 6.2, Week 3 NE 19.8, Week 4 CIN 13.1, Week 5 PHI 21.7. Bye in Week 7.
This week · JAX vs HOU
Week 6 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 16.5
- PPR
- 16.5
- Standard
- 16.5
Range 5.6–27.6
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 32.0 att · 241 pass yds · 1.60 pass TD · 0.68 INT · 3.3 car · 15 rush yds · 0.10 rush TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 98% of JAX's pass attempts × 32.3 a game · 12% of JAX's carries × 26.9 a game
- 31.0 attempts · 3.2 carries
- Efficiency
- 7.5 yds/attempt
- 233 pass yds
- Scoring chances
- 5.16 TD per 100 attempts
- 1.64 TD
- Vegas
- JAX implied 23.3 vs 24.1 in his games (×0.96)
- −2% volume, −7% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason QB11 in FFC ADP → 17.9 PPG, 29% weight at 5 games
- +0.5 half-PPR pts (15.9 → 16.5)
- Context (not in projection)
- HOU allows 0.94× league QB points (rank 20 of 32)
| Opponent | vs HOUJAX at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 9:30 AM ET |
| Implied total | 23.3JAX · consensus line |
| Wind | Wind flag: NE 15 mphKickoff-hour forecast, sustained 15 mph or more · context — not in the projection |
| HOU vs QB | Allows the 20th-most fantasy points to QBs0.94× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 5% of JAX's carries inside the 201 of 20, through Week 5 |
| Rest of season | QB13 of 40 · 17.0 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 11 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 7 |
Trade value 0 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 6–17, 12-team Half-PPR: at or below a replacement player, so about 0 in a trade.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 5, consensus line as of Sun, Oct 11, 8:19 PM ET, no Week 6 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 17.4
- QB rank
- QB15
- of 41 with 2+ games
- Games
- 5
- JAX
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 86.9 | 17.4 |
| Half-PPR | 86.9 | 17.4 |
| PPR | 86.9 | 17.4 |
QB rank is by PPR points per game among QBs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Carries | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PHI | 21.7 | 331 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 | — | Score this game |
| 4 | CIN | 13.1 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 3 | NE | 19.8 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 95% | Score this game |
| 2 | DEN | 6.2 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 100% | Score this game |
| 1 | CLE | 26.1 | 245 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 88% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 3–5) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 98% | 96% | +2 |
| Carries per game | 3.3 | 2.8 | +0.5 |
| PPR points per game | 18.2 | 17.4 | +0.8 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game. Snap share leaves out Week 5: no snap count has been published for that game yet.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 76.9 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 76 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 19.9 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +6.0 | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | -2.7pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 31 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Trevor Lawrence was drafted as the QB7 — ADP 76.9 — in July 2026. His 19.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the QB starter line.
- ADP 76.9
- Overall ADP rank 76
- Sleeper search rank 31
- Fantasy points / game 19.9
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+6.0 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Trevor Lawrence's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Trevor Lawrence's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
-2.7pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Steady: a 2.7-point move in snap share over the season is ordinary noise, so this checkpoint does not lean either way.
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
Next step
Everything for Week 6, on one page.
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