Head to head
Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are a near-tie on 2025 production (20.4 vs 19.9 half-PPR PPG). At matching ADP, the pick comes down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Patrick Mahomes | Metric | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| 68.9 (QB6) | ADP | 76.9 (QB7) |
| 70 | Overall ADP rank | 76 |
| 20.4 | Fantasy points / game | 19.9 |
| 0.2% | Target share | — |
| 1.1% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 26 | Sleeper search rank | 31 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
The consensus read
The market separates them by a hair — Patrick Mahomes at ADP 68.9, Trevor Lawrence at ADP 76.9. On 2025 production it is 20.4 vs 19.9 half-PPR points per game.
What has to be true
This call flips on beliefs you can check. Each one is tied to the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value.
Strong move if you believe…
-
Patrick Mahomes's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
1.1% last 3 vs 0.2% season (2025)
Poor move if instead…
-
Patrick Mahomes's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint: target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
1.1% last 3 vs 0.2% season (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.