Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are a near-tie on 2025 production (20.4 vs 19.9 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
This week's projections are in the Week 9 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 9: start Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
Slight lean: Patrick Mahomes over Trevor Lawrence (1.4 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 57% of the time.
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QB · KC
Patrick Mahomes
19.3 pts projected · range 8.5–30.5
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QB · JAX
Trevor Lawrence
17.9 pts projected · range 7.0–29.1
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 8, Trevor Lawrence has out-scored Patrick Mahomes by 1.2 PPR points per game, 19.1 to 17.9 (7 games each).
Through Week 8 · Week 8 in progress — 13 of 14 games final · nflverse stats as of
Patrick Mahomes · Week 8 injury report Injury report — knee, full practice
| Patrick Mahomes | Metric | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 7 |
| 17.9 | PPR points per game | 19.1 |
| 256.4 | Pass yards per game | 241.4 |
| 3.0 | Carries per game | 2.9 |
| 100% | Snap share | 95% |
| 14.0 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 22.8 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Patrick Mahomes · Trevor Lawrence
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Patrick Mahomes | Metric | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| 68.9 (QB6) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 76.9 (QB7) |
| 70 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 76 |
| 20.4 | Fantasy points / game | 19.9 |
| 0.2% | Target share | — |
| 1.1% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 26 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 31 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Patrick Mahomes at ADP 68.9, Trevor Lawrence at ADP 76.9. On 2025 production it is 20.4 vs 19.9 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Patrick Mahomes
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
1.1% last 3 vs 0.2% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Patrick Mahomes's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Patrick Mahomes's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.