Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are a near-tie on 2025 production (20.4 vs 19.9 half-PPR PPG). At matching July 2026 ADP, the pick came down to your roster build, not a market tiebreak.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
Trevor Lawrence by default: Patrick Mahomes is on bye in Week 5.
Trevor Lawrence projects for 16.5 pts.
-
QB · JAX
Trevor Lawrence
16.5 pts projected · range 5.6–27.7
-
Can't start · Bye
Patrick Mahomes
KC is on bye in Week 5 — can't start.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Patrick Mahomes has out-scored Trevor Lawrence by 4.6 PPR points per game, 20.9 to 16.3 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of
Patrick Mahomes · Week 4 injury report Injury report — knee, full practice
| Patrick Mahomes | Metric | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 20.9 | PPR points per game | 16.3 |
| 259.3 | Pass yards per game | 210.8 |
| 3.0 | Carries per game | 2.8 |
| 100% | Snap share | 96% |
| 20.6 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 13.0 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Patrick Mahomes · Trevor Lawrence
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Patrick Mahomes | Metric | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| 68.9 (QB6) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 76.9 (QB7) |
| 70 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 76 |
| 20.4 | Fantasy points / game | 19.9 |
| 0.2% | Target share | — |
| 1.1% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 26 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 31 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Patrick Mahomes at ADP 68.9, Trevor Lawrence at ADP 76.9. On 2025 production it is 20.4 vs 19.9 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
-
Checkpoint · Patrick Mahomes
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
1.1% last 3 vs 0.2% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Patrick Mahomes's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Patrick Mahomes's late-2025 target uptick is small-sample noise that reverts
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.