Trey McBride: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Trey McBride averaged 14.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a TE1 draft slot was worth, so the July 2026 price read roughly in line with the production. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
This week's projection is in the Week 5 card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
Trey McBride
TE · Arizona Cardinals
This week · Week 5
Projected 14.2 half-PPR points in Week 5, with a likely range of 9.5 to 21.7.
vs DET · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Forecast 14.2 Half-PPR points: the Vegas line adds 1.7, the matchup nothing. Show how it is built.
| Step | Points | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline: His role and efficiency over 4 games, with his preseason TE2 ADP at 33% weight, at his usual line | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| Vegas: ARI implied 24.5 vs 20.9 in his games | +1.7 | 14.2 |
| Matchup: DET 1st softest vs TE: already in the Vegas line | 0.0 | 14.2 |
| Availability: No designation, no teammate ruled out | 0.0 | 14.2 |
| Projection | 14.2 | 14.2 |
Each step is the change from switching that factor on, in this order, so the steps add up to the projection. The matchup adds nothing with a line: the model's backtest found the line already prices the defense.
- Helps: ARI is implied for 24.5 points, 8th-highest of 30 teams with a line this week.
- Helps: DET ranks 1st of 32 defenses in fantasy points allowed to TEs, where 1st allows the most (context, not in the projection).
- Context: a retractable roof, treated as indoors.
Season so far · through Week 4
- Half-PPR/g
- 13.2 half-PPR points a game over 4 games, 52.7 in all.
- PPR rank
- TE2 of 81 TEs with 2 or more games, by PPR points per game.
- Games
- 4 games with a stat line through Week 4.
- tgt share
- 32.3% of his team's targets this season, per team game.
PPR 69.2 (17.3/g) · Std 36.2 (9.1/g)
Game log · half-PPR
Half-PPR points by week, oldest first: Week 1 LAC 20.0, Week 2 SEA 14.1, Week 3 SF 12.0, Week 4 NYG 6.6. Bye in Week 14.
This week · ARI vs DET
Week 5 projection
- Half‑PPR
- 14.2
- PPR
- 17.5
- Standard
- 10.8
Range 9.5–21.7
Floor to ceiling in half-PPR points: the 10th to 90th percentile of how far past weeks landed from a projection like this one. About 4 in 5 landed inside it.
Projected line: 9.4 tgt · 6.73 rec · 58 yds · 0.85 TD
Show the math
- Volume
- 27% of ARI's targets × 33.0 a game
- 9.9 targets
- Efficiency
- 72% catch · 6.3 yds/target
- 7.1 rec · 61 yds
- Scoring chances
- 7.05 TD per 100 targets, from his red-zone usage
- 0.89 TD
- Vegas
- ARI implied 24.5 vs 20.9 in his games (×1.17)
- +8% volume, +37% TD rate
- Market prior
- Preseason TE2 in FFC ADP → 12.7 PPG, 33% weight at 4 games
- −0.7 half-PPR pts (14.9 → 14.2)
- Context (not in projection)
- DET allows 1.61× league TE points (rank 1 of 32)
| Opponent | vs DETARI at home |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| Implied total | 24.5ARI · consensus line |
| DET vs TE | Allows the most fantasy points to TEs1.61× the league average · context — not in the projection |
| Red zone | 32% of ARI's targets inside the 209 of 28, through Week 4 · 7 inside the 10 · 2 TD |
| Rest of season | TE2 of 48 · 12.3 PPGHalf-PPR points per game, market prior included · 12 games left through Week 17 · bye in Week 14 |
Trade value 31 of 100
Redraft chart, Weeks 5–17, 12-team Half-PPR: rank 25 of 84 players above replacement.
See the trade value chart Put him in a trade
Compare him with another player
Built from stats through Week 4, consensus line as of Mon, Oct 5, 7:31 AM ET, no Week 5 injury report yet, so no designation is applied. Game-day inactives are not in the model. Market prior: preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 so far
Through Week 4 · Week 4 in progress — 15 of 16 games final · nflverse stats as of
- PPR pts / game
- 17.3
- TE rank
- TE2
- of 81 with 2+ games
- Games
- 4
- ARI
| Scoring | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 36.2 | 9.1 |
| Half-PPR | 52.7 | 13.2 |
| PPR | 69.2 | 17.3 |
TE rank is by PPR points per game among TEs with 2 or more games.
Game log
Swipe for every stat and the calculator link
| Wk | Opp | PPR pts | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share | Snap % | Calculator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NYG | 10.1 | 12 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 34% | 97% | Score this game |
| 3 | SF | 16.5 | 11 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 22% | 91% | Score this game |
| 2 | SEA | 18.1 | 10 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 38% | 88% | Score this game |
| 1 | LAC | 24.5 | 13 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 35% | 80% | Score this game |
PPR pts is nflverse's full-PPR total for the game. "Score this game" opens the fantasy point calculator with that exact line loaded, to re-score it in Standard, Half-PPR or your league's settings. A dash means nflverse has no figure for that game yet.
Usage trend
Swipe for the season and the change
| Per game | Last 3 (Wks 2–4) | Season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Targets per game | 11.0 | 11.5 | −0.5 |
| Target share | 31% | 32% | −1 |
| Air-yards share | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| PPR points per game | 14.9 | 17.3 | −2.4 |
Shares are team-relative and averaged per game.
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP (July 2026) | 38.2 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 40 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 14.9 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.7 | nflverse |
| Target share | 27.9% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 31.1% | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +4.3pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 19 | Sleeper |
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
Trey McBride was drafted as the TE1 — ADP 38.2 — in July 2026. His 14.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- ADP 38.2
- Overall ADP rank 40
- Sleeper search rank 19
- Fantasy points / game 14.9
The edge case — what had to be true
Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read. Check them against what has actually happened since.
-
Checkpoint
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
31.1% last 3 vs 27.9% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Trey McBride's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor pick if instead
Trey McBride's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
-
Checkpoint
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Trey McBride's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor pick if instead
Trey McBride's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
-
Checkpoint
Snap share trend, season (2025)
+4.3pp (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong pick if you believed
Trey McBride's snap share keeps climbing
Poor pick if instead
Trey McBride's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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