Trey McBride: 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
Trey McBride averaged 14.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025 — about what a TE1 draft slot is worth, so the price reads roughly in line with the production. His target share trended up over his last three games of 2025.
Our read, framed from the cited 2025 data below — opinion, not a projection.
The numbers behind the read
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ADP | 38.2 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Overall ADP rank | 40 | Fantasy Football Calculator |
| Fantasy points / game | 14.9 | nflverse |
| Points over expected (FPOE) | +1.7 | nflverse |
| Target share | 27.9% | nflverse |
| Target share, last 3 games (2025) | 31.1% | nflverse |
| Snap share trend, last 3 vs season (2025) | +4.3pp | nflverse |
| Sleeper search rank | 19 | Sleeper |
The consensus read
The market drafts Trey McBride as the TE1 (ADP 38.2). His 14.9 half-PPR points per game in 2025 clears the TE starter line, with targets trending up late in that year.
- adp 38.2
- adp_rank 40
- search_rank 19
- ppg 14.9
The edge case — what has to be true
Every belief is tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that confirms or denies it, with its current value. Draft on the beliefs you share.
Strong pick if you believe…
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Trey McBride's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
31.1% last 3 vs 27.9% season (2025)
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Trey McBride's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+1.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
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Trey McBride's snap share keeps climbing
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+4.3pp (2025)
Poor pick if instead…
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Trey McBride's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Checkpoint
target_share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
31.1% last 3 vs 27.9% season (2025)
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Trey McBride's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Checkpoint
fpoe (actual minus xFP per game), season (2025)
+1.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025)
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Trey McBride's snap climb was situational and flattens out
Checkpoint
snap_pct_trend, season (2025)
+4.3pp (2025)
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure on this page is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data — nothing is hand-entered. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator.
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.
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