Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Trey McBride or Brock Bowers?
Trey McBride was the stronger 2025 producer — 14.9 vs 12.0 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 38.2 vs 41). That gap was the draft-day case for Trey McBride.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start Trey McBride or Brock Bowers?
Only Trey McBride has a projection for Week 5 (14.7 pts).
Brock Bowers's game has already kicked off, so there's no gap to judge.
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TE · ARI
Trey McBride
14.7 pts projected · range 10.0–22.2
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Kicked off
Brock Bowers
His Week 5 game already kicked off (Sun 1:00 PM ET) — too late to change.
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 5, Brock Bowers has out-scored Trey McBride by 6.8 PPR points per game, 24.1 to 17.3 (Trey McBride 4 games, Brock Bowers 2 games).
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 1 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
Brock Bowers · Week 5 injury report Injury report — knee, full practice
| Trey McBride | Metric | Brock Bowers |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 2 |
| 17.3 | PPR points per game | 24.1 |
| 32% | Target share | 33% |
| 11.5 | Targets per game | 12.0 |
| 89% | Snap share | 81% |
| 14.9 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 24.1 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Trey McBride · Brock Bowers
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Trey McBride | Metric | Brock Bowers |
|---|---|---|
| 38.2 (TE1) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 41 (TE2) |
| 40 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 42 |
| 14.9 | Fantasy points / game | 12.0 |
| +1.7 | Points over expected (FPOE) | — |
| 27.9% | Target share | — |
| 31.1% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 19 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 21 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
xFP (expected fantasy points) is what a typical player would score with the same targets, carries and field position. FPOE (points over expected) is actual points minus xFP, per game.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Trey McBride at ADP 38.2, Brock Bowers at ADP 41. On 2025 production it is 14.9 vs 12.0 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Trey McBride
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
31.1% last 3 vs 27.9% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Trey McBride's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Trey McBride's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
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Checkpoint · Trey McBride
Points over expected (FPOE) per game, season (2025)
+1.7 pts/gm vs expectation (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Trey McBride's scoring over expected (xFP) is skill, not variance
Poor move if instead
Trey McBride's scoring over expected regresses to the xFP baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.