Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson?
Dallas Goedert was the stronger 2025 producer — 10.3 vs 8.7 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 130 vs 137.7). That gap was the draft-day case for Dallas Goedert.
This week's projections are in the Week 6 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 6: start Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson?
Slight lean: Dallas Goedert over Jake Ferguson (1.5 pts).
In 2024–25, projection gaps this size went the higher player's way about 57% of the time.
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TE · PHI
Dallas Goedert
8.2 pts projected · range 3.5–15.7
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TE · DAL
Jake Ferguson
6.7 pts projected · range 2.0–14.2
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 5, Dallas Goedert has out-scored Jake Ferguson by 3.4 PPR points per game, 11.6 to 8.2 (Dallas Goedert 3 games, Jake Ferguson 5 games).
Through Week 5 · Week 5 in progress — 13 of 15 games final · nflverse stats as of
Dallas Goedert · Week 5 injury report Injury report — knee, full practice
| Dallas Goedert | Metric | Jake Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 5 |
| 11.6 | PPR points per game | 8.2 |
| 18% | Target share | 11% |
| 5.3 | Targets per game | 4.2 |
| 60% | Snap share | 72% |
| 11.6 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 6.1 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: Dallas Goedert · Jake Ferguson
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| Dallas Goedert | Metric | Jake Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| 130 (TE12) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 137.7 (TE13) |
| 133 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 145 |
| 10.3 | Fantasy points / game | 8.7 |
| 20.8% | Target share | — |
| 25.5% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 94 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 97 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — Dallas Goedert at ADP 130, Jake Ferguson at ADP 137.7. On 2025 production it is 10.3 vs 8.7 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · Dallas Goedert
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
25.5% last 3 vs 20.8% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
Dallas Goedert's late-2025 target share is the new baseline, not a blip
Poor move if instead
Dallas Goedert's late-2025 target spike is small-sample noise that reverts
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.