Head to head · July 2026 draft-day read
David Montgomery or Bhayshul Tuten?
David Montgomery was the stronger 2025 producer — 9.1 vs 5.6 half-PPR points per game, at essentially the same July 2026 draft cost (ADP 53.8 vs 58.2). That gap was the draft-day case for David Montgomery.
This week's projections are in the Week 5 start/sit card below. The July 2026 draft-day read that follows is opinion, framed from the cited 2025 data.
This week's start/sit · Half-PPR
Week 5: start David Montgomery or Bhayshul Tuten?
Coin flip: Bhayshul Tuten and David Montgomery are 0.7 pts apart.
In 2024–25, projection gaps under 1 point went the higher player's way about 52% of the time — close to a coin toss.
What does differ: Bhayshul Tuten has the higher floor (2.7 vs 2.0) and JAX is implied for more points (24.8 vs HOU's 22.8).
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RB · JAX
Bhayshul Tuten
9.9 pts projected · range 2.7–18.8
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RB · HOU
David Montgomery
9.2 pts projected · range 2.0–18.1
2026 season · the games so far
2026 head-to-head so far
Through Week 4, Bhayshul Tuten has out-scored David Montgomery by 1.9 PPR points per game, 13.0 to 11.1 (4 games each).
Through Week 4 · nflverse stats as of
| David Montgomery | Metric | Bhayshul Tuten |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 4 |
| 11.1 | PPR points per game | 13.0 |
| 11.8 | Carries per game | 15.0 |
| 5% | Target share | 7% |
| 55% | Snap share | 52% |
| 5.2 | PPR points per game, last 3 games | 14.1 |
Purple marks the higher figure. Shares are team-relative, averaged per game; snap share counts only games with a published snap count. "Last 3 games" is each player's own last 3 games played. A dash means no 2026 figure. 2026 regular season via nflverse.
Game by game: David Montgomery · Bhayshul Tuten
Draft-day record · July 2026
The July 2026 draft-day read
This is the July 2026 pre-draft read, kept as published. Every ADP and market figure on this page comes from the Fantasy Football Calculator snapshot of Jul 15, 2026 and is not updated in-season — 2026 drafts are over and ADP has stopped moving. In-season tools
Metric by metric
The tale of the tape
| David Montgomery | Metric | Bhayshul Tuten |
|---|---|---|
| 53.8 (RB23) | Draft ADP (July 2026) | 58.2 (RB24) |
| 54 | Overall ADP rank (July 2026) | 59 |
| 9.1 | Fantasy points / game | 5.6 |
| 5.4% | Target share | — |
| 3.2% | Target share, last 3 games (2025) | — |
| 48 | Sleeper search rank (July 2026) | 44 |
Purple marks the better figure. A dash means the engine did not cite that metric for that player. 2025 regular season via nflverse · ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator, Jul 15, 2026 snapshot.
The consensus read
July 2026 drafts separated them by a hair — David Montgomery at ADP 53.8, Bhayshul Tuten at ADP 58.2. On 2025 production it is 9.1 vs 5.6 half-PPR points per game.
What had to be true
This call flipped on beliefs that were checkable at the time. Every belief was tied to a checkpoint: the exact data point that would confirm or deny it, with its value at the time of the July 2026 read.
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Checkpoint · David Montgomery
Target share, last 3 games vs season (2025)
3.2% last 3 vs 5.4% season (2025) · as of July 2026
Strong move if you believed
David Montgomery's late-2025 target dip was matchup noise, not a role change
Poor move if instead
David Montgomery's target share is fading from the season baseline
Sources: Fantasy Football Calculator · Sleeper · nflverse. Every figure here is a value the analysis engine cited from the underlying data. Stats are 2025 regular season via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (Jul 15, 2026 snapshot, not updated in-season).
FantasyTools analysis is opinion for entertainment purposes only — not betting, financial, or professional advice.